Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung in Deutschland setzt sich kraftvoll fort


Author Info

  • Arbeitskreis Konjunktur des IWH
  • Kiel Economics
Registered author(s):


    The worldwide upswing has gained momentum since last autumn. The main cause for the high growth dynamics is a monetary policy that is very expansive not only in advanced economies, where the utilization rates for production capacities are mostly still low, but also in emerging market economies that in general have already recovered from the Great Recession. The German economy participates in the worldwide upswing. Here the recovery is ahead of those in most other advanced economies. Both exports and domestic demand are strongly expanding. One reason for the high growth dynamics is that key interest rates are particularly low for Germany, as the ECB has to take into account that many euro area economies are much more fragile. In addition, Germany still benefits from the wage moderation and the labour market reforms in the past decade: employment is expanding strongly, and firms find many profitable investment projects. Major risks for this forecast are structural problems of some advanced economies that had become visible during the Great Recession and are still unresolved (concerning the US housing market and the crisis of confidence in the fiscal sustainability of some euro area countries in particular). A further risk is the possibility of further oil price hikes due to political instability in North Africa and the Middle East.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its journal Wirtschaft im Wandel.

    Volume (Year): 17 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 96-120

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:iwh:iwhwiw:3-11-3

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Kleine Märkerstrasse 8, 06108 Halle (Saale)
    Phone: (0345) 7753-60
    Fax: (0345) 7753-820
    Web page:
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: forecast;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:


    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.



    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


    Access and download statistics


    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iwh:iwhwiw:3-11-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tobias Henning).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.