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REIT Share Price and NAV Deviations: Noise or Sentiment?

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Author Info

  • Nai Jia Lee

    ()
    (Department of Real Estate, National University of Singapore)

  • Tien Foo Sing

    ()
    (Department of Real Estate, National University of Singapore, 4 Architecture Drive, Singapore 117566.)

  • Dinh Hoang Tran

    (Department of Real Estate, National University of Singapore)

Abstract

This paper empirically tests the sentiment and ¡§noise¡¨ effects in Singapore REITs (S-REIT) over the periods from January 2005 to December 2010.Our empirical results show that trading volume is significantly and negatively correlated with price to net asset value (P/NAV) premiums in the contemporary term. However, lagged trading volume is found to have positive effects on P/NAV premiums, which imply that herd activities of uninformed investors in the last period drive up REIT stock prices. The finding supports the sentiment hypothesis, but rejects the fundamental argument on P/NAV deviations. We find that the sentiment effects are asymmetric. The sentiment effects are not observed in the ¡§hot¡¨ markets during the pre-subprime crisis periods. However, the negative relations between trading volume and P/NAV premiums disappear in the post-crisis periods in 2008.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Asian Real Estate Society in its journal International Real Estate Review.

Volume (Year): 16 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 28-47

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Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:16:n:01:2013:p:28-47

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Postal: Asia Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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Web page: http://www.asres.org/

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Postal: Asian Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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Related research

Keywords: Net Asset Value; Noise Trading; Sentiment; Imperfect Market; and REIT;

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References

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  1. Malkiel, Burton G, 1977. "The Valuation of Closed-End Investment-Company Shares," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 847-59, June.
  2. Glascock, John L & Lu, Chiuling & So, Raymond W, 2000. "Further Evidence on the Integration of REIT, Bond, and Stock Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 177-94, March.
  3. William M. Getry & Deen Kemsley & Christopher J. Mayer, 2003. "Dividend Taxes and Share Prices: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 261-282, 02.
  4. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  5. Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January.
  6. J.B. Chay & Charles Trzcinka, 1997. "Managerial Performance and the Cross-Sectional Pricing of Closed-End Funds," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-20, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  7. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
  8. Liu, Crocker H, et al, 1990. "The Integration of the Real Estate Market and the Stock Market: Some Preliminary Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 261-82, September.
  9. John R. Nofsinger & Richard W. Sias, 1999. "Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2263-2295, December.
  10. Richard J. Barkham & Charles W. R. Ward, 1999. "Investor Sentiment and Noise Traders: Discount to Net Asset Value in Listed Property Companies in the U.K," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 291-312.
  11. Peijie Wang & Colin Lizieri & George Matysiak, 1997. "Information asymmetry, long-run relationship and price discovery in property investment markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 261-275.
  12. Gordon Gemmill & Dylan C. Thomas, 2002. "Noise Trading, Costly Arbitrage, and Asset Prices: Evidence from Closed-end Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2571-2594, December.
  13. Ko Wang & John Erickson & George Gau & Su Han Chan, 1995. "Market Microstructure and Real Estate Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 85-100.
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