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REIT Characteristics and Predictability

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  • Ping Cheng

    ()
    (Department of Industry Studies, College of Business, Florida Atlantic University, 777 Glades Road, Boca Raton, FL 33431)

  • Stephen E. Roulac

    ()
    (Roulac Global Places, LLC, 709 Fifth Avenue, San Rafael, CA 94901)

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    Abstract

    This paper examines the relationship between return predictability and REIT characteristics. We build a multifactor model based on a set of firm-specific factors that include (1) Risk factors; (2) Liquidity factors; (3) Expensiveness; (4) Profitability; and (5) Return history. Our model demonstrates the capability of predicting the “winners” and the “losers,” with fairly high consistency. Given the large return differences uncovered by the model, and the fundamental characteristics of the “winners” versus the “losers,” it is unlikely that strong results are artifacts of a biased methodology.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Asian Real Estate Society in its journal International Real Estate Review.

    Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 23-41

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    Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:10:n:02:2007:p:23-41

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Asia Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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    Web page: http://www.asres.org/

    Order Information:
    Postal: Asian Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
    Email:
    Web: http://www.asres.org/

    Related research

    Keywords: REIT; return predictability; REIT characteristics; risk and return; portfolio;

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    References

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    1. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    2. Edward Nelling & Joseph Gyourko, 1998. "The Predictability of Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 251-268.
    3. Haugen, Robert A. & Baker, Nardin L., 1996. "Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 401-439, July.
    4. Allen, Marcus T & Madura, Jeff & Springer, Thomas M, 2000. "REIT Characteristics and the Sensitivity of REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 141-52, September.
    5. Richard A. Graff & Michael S. Young, 1997. "Serial Persistence in Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 183-214.
    6. Mei, Jianping & Liu, Crocker H, 1994. "The Predictability of Real Estate Returns and Market Timing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 115-35, March.
    7. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September.
    8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
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