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Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union

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Abstract

This study analyses the dynamic effects of specific macroeconomic variables (i.e. housing loan rates, inflation and employment) on the price of new houses sold in Greece. An error correction vector autoregressive (ECVAR) model is used to model the impact of the macroeconomic variables on real housing prices. Variance decompositions show that the housing loan rate is the variable with the highest explanatory power over the variation of real housing prices, followed by inflation and employment.

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File URL: http://www.umac.mo/fba/irer/papers/past/Vol6_pdf/063-074%20Greece.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Asian Real Estate Society in its journal International Real Estate Review.

Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 63-47

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Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:06:n:01:2003:p.63-47

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Postal: Asia Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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Web page: http://www.asres.org/

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Postal: Asian Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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Web: http://www.asres.org/

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Keywords: Expected Returns; Prepayment;

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References

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  1. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
  2. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  4. Manchester, Joyce, 1987. "Inflation and housing demand: A new perspective," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 105-125, January.
  5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  6. Schwab, Robert M., 1983. "Real and nominal interest rates and the demand for housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 181-195, March.
  7. Muellbauer, John, 1992. "Anglo-German differences in housing market dynamics : The role of institutions and macro economic policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 539-548, April.
  8. Baffoe-Bonnie, John, 1998. "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 179-97, September.
  9. Harris, Jack C, 1989. "The Effect of Real Rates of Interest on Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 47-60, February.
  10. Patric H. Hendershott, 1980. "Real User Costs and the Demand for Single-Family Housing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 401-452.
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Cited by:
  1. Orhan Erdem & Ali Coskun, 2012. "A Survey-Based Analysis of Housing Market," Working Paper 02, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul.
  2. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.

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