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Could the decrease in Belgian government debt-servicing costs offset increased age-related expenditure?

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  • Mikkel Barslund

    (Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels, Belgium)

  • Lars Ludolph

    (Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels, Belgium)

Abstract

This paper argues that none of the secular trends that have driven down real interest rates over the past decades is likely to reverse in the near future. Government debt-servicing costs have therefore decreased significantly and can be expected to decrease further over the coming years. We calculate the direct gains accruing to the Belgian government from lower net debt interest payments and contrast them to the projected future increases in age-related expenditures. If interest rates remain on their current levels and savings on interest payments are channeled to cover the increases in age-related expenditures, they will cover two thirds of financing needs in these areas until 2030.

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  • Mikkel Barslund & Lars Ludolph, 2019. "Could the decrease in Belgian government debt-servicing costs offset increased age-related expenditure?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 225-246.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipf:psejou:v:43:y:2019:i:3:p:225-246
    DOI: 10.3326/pse.43.3.1
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    Cited by:

    1. D. Cornille & H. Godefroid & L. Van Meensel & S. Van Parys, 2019. "How risky is the high public debt in a context of low interest rates ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 70-96, September.
    2. Mikkel Barslund & Lars Ludolph, 2019. "Could the decrease in Belgian government debt-servicing costs offset increased age-related expenditure?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 225-246.
    3. Gros, Daniel, 2016. "Ultra-low or Negative Yields on Euro-Area Long-term Bonds: Causes and Implications for Monetary Policy," CEPS Papers 11877, Centre for European Policy Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rates; ageing; government debt management; risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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