IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v9y1963i4p542-550.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Perils of Polynomials

Author

Listed:
  • Dudley J. Cowden

    (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Abstract

It is extremely dangerous to extrapolate a polynomial trend. Although there are other sources of danger, this study concentrates on the statistical error, which is very large for end values and increases alarmingly with extrapolations. Relative standard errors of polynomial trend values are summarized, and generalizations are made concerning the relative magnitude of the standard errors with changes in: (1) the degree of equation; (2) the number of observations; (3) the position of the trend value in time. The most interesting generalization is that the relative variance of a polynomial of degree m, as the position of the trend value departs farther and farther from the central position in time, may be described by a polynomial equation of degree 2m.

Suggested Citation

  • Dudley J. Cowden, 1963. "The Perils of Polynomials," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 542-550, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:9:y:1963:i:4:p:542-550
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.9.4.542
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.4.542
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.9.4.542?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:9:y:1963:i:4:p:542-550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.