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Two Experiments on Bias and Conflict in Organizational Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Richard M. Cyert

    (Carnegie Institute of Technology)

  • James G. March

    (Carnegie Institute of Technology)

  • William H. Starbuck

    (Purdue University)

Abstract

In recent years there has been increased interest in the effects of internal communication on decision processes. A number of hypotheses relating the bias in information to the final decision have been proposed. In this paper we discuss two laboratory experiments which were designed to test two such hypotheses. The first experiment tests the hypothesis that cost and sales estimations are made with the implicit assumption that a biased pay-off structure exists. The second experiment tests explicitly the effects of biased and unbiased pay-off structures on estimation within an organization. An analysis of the data for the two experiments is made and some implications for further research are drawn from the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard M. Cyert & James G. March & William H. Starbuck, 1961. "Two Experiments on Bias and Conflict in Organizational Estimation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 7(3), pages 254-264, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:7:y:1961:i:3:p:254-264
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.7.3.254
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    Cited by:

    1. Mie Augier & Michael Prietula, 2007. "Perspective---Historical Roots of the A Behavioral Theory of the Firm Model at GSIA," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 507-522, June.
    2. Sulaimon Olanrewaju ADEBIYI & Oluwayemisi Temitope SODOLAMU, 2022. "Application Of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average And Holt Winters Methods For Optimum Sales Forecasting In The Manufacturing Sector," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 7(2), pages 161-173.
    3. Ahmed Belkaoui, 1985. "Slack budgeting, information distortion and self†esteem," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 111-123, September.
    4. Jiyang Dong & James G. March & Maciej Workiewicz, 2017. "On organizing: an interview with James G. March," Journal of Organization Design, Springer;Organizational Design Community, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Philippe Baumard, 1998. "Starbuck, William Haynes (1934 –)," Post-Print hal-03230911, HAL.
    6. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 69-80.
    7. Önkal, Dilek & Zeynep Sayım, K. & Lawrence, Michael, 2012. "Wisdom of group forecasts: Does role-playing play a role?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 693-702.

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