IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v57y2011i3p471-486.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Portfolio Dynamics for Customers of a Multiservice Provider

Author

Listed:
  • David A. Schweidel

    (Wisconsin School of Business, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706)

  • Eric T. Bradlow

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Peter S. Fader

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

Multiservice providers, such as telecommunication and financial service companies, can benefit from understanding how customers' service portfolios evolve over the course of their relationships. This can provide guidance for managerial issues such as customer valuation and predicting customers' future behavior, whether it is acquiring additional services, selectively dropping current services, or ending the relationship entirely. In this research, we develop a dynamic hidden Markov model to identify latent states that govern customers' affinity for the available services through which customers evolve. In addition, we incorporate and demonstrate the importance of separating two other sources of dynamics: portfolio inertia and service stickiness. We then examine the relationship between state membership and managerially relevant metrics, including customers' propensities for acquiring additional services or terminating the relationship, and customer lifetime value. Through a series of illustrative vignettes, we show that customers who have discarded a particular service may have an increased risk of canceling all services in the near future (as intuition would suggest) but also may be more prone to acquire more services, a provocative finding of interest to service providers. Our findings also emphasize the need to look beyond the previous period, as in much current research, and consider how customers have evolved over their entire relationship in order to predict their future actions. This paper was accepted by Pradeep Chintagunta, marketing.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Schweidel & Eric T. Bradlow & Peter S. Fader, 2011. "Portfolio Dynamics for Customers of a Multiservice Provider," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 471-486, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:3:p:471-486
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1100.1284
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1100.1284
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.1100.1284?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bolton, R.N. & Lemo, K.N. & Verhoef, P.C., 2002. "The Theoretical Underpinnings of Customer Asset Management," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-80-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    2. Schweidel, David A. & Fader, Peter S., 2009. "Dynamic changepoints revisited: An evolving process model of new product sales," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 119-124.
    3. Oded Netzer & James M. Lattin & V. Srinivasan, 2008. "A Hidden Markov Model of Customer Relationship Dynamics," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 185-204, 03-04.
    4. Seetharaman, P B & Chintagunta, Pradeep K, 2003. "The Proportional Hazard Model for Purchase Timing: A Comparison of Alternative Specifications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 368-382, July.
    5. Bas Donkers & Peter Verhoef & Martijn Jong, 2007. "Modeling CLV: A test of competing models in the insurance industry," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 163-190, June.
    6. Rakesh Niraj & V. Padmanabhan & P. B. Seetharaman, 2008. "Research Note—A Cross-Category Model of Households' Incidence and Quantity Decisions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 225-235, 03-04.
    7. Ricardo Montoya & Oded Netzer & Kamel Jedidi, 2010. "Dynamic Allocation of Pharmaceutical Detailing and Sampling for Long-Term Profitability," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 909-924, 09-10.
    8. Tülin Erdem, 1996. "A Dynamic Analysis of Market Structure Based on Panel Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 359-378.
    9. Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Chun-Yao Huang, 2004. "A Dynamic Changepoint Model for New Product Sales Forecasting," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 50-65, October.
    10. Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 1999. "Variety Seeking, Purchase Timing, and the "Lightning Bolt" Brand Choice Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(4), pages 486-498, April.
    11. David A. Schweidel & Peter S. Fader & Eric T. Bradlow, 2008. "A Bivariate Timing Model of Customer Acquisition and Retention," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 829-843, 09-10.
    12. Alan L. Montgomery & Shibo Li & Kannan Srinivasan & John C. Liechty, 2004. "Modeling Online Browsing and Path Analysis Using Clickstream Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 579-595, November.
    13. Cooper, Lee G & Nakanishi, Masao, 1983. "Standardizing Variables in Multiplicative Choice Models," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 10(1), pages 96-108, June.
    14. Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie, 2010. "Customer-Base Valuation in a Contractual Setting: The Perils of Ignoring Heterogeneity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 85-93, 01-02.
    15. David C. Schmittlein & Donald G. Morrison & Richard Colombo, 1987. "Counting Your Customers: Who-Are They and What Will They Do Next?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eric M. Schwartz & Eric T. Bradlow & Peter S. Fader, 2014. "Model Selection Using Database Characteristics: Developing a Classification Tree for Longitudinal Incidence Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 188-205, March.
    2. Park, Chang Hee & Park, Young-Hoon & Schweidel, David A., 2014. "A multi-category customer base analysis," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 266-279.
    3. Chang, Chun-Wei & Zhang, Jonathan Z., 2016. "The Effects of Channel Experiences and Direct Marketing on Customer Retention in Multichannel Settings," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 77-90.
    4. Jonathan Z. Zhang & Chun-Wei Chang, 2021. "Consumer dynamics: theories, methods, and emerging directions," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 166-196, January.
    5. Yanwen Wang & Chunhua Wu & Ting Zhu, 2019. "Mobile Hailing Technology and Taxi Driving Behaviors," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(5), pages 734-755, September.
    6. Eva Ascarza & Bruce G. S. Hardie, 2013. "A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(4), pages 570-590, July.
    7. Michael Platzer & Thomas Reutterer, 2016. "Ticking Away the Moments: Timing Regularity Helps to Better Predict Customer Activity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(5), pages 779-799, September.
    8. David A. Schweidel & George Knox, 2013. "Incorporating Direct Marketing Activity into Latent Attrition Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 471-487, May.
    9. Holtrop, Niels & Wieringa, Jaap E., 2023. "Timing customer reactivation initiatives," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 570-589.
    10. Kappe, Eelco & Stadler Blank, Ashley & DeSarbo, Wayne S., 2018. "A random coefficients mixture hidden Markov model for marketing research," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 415-431.
    11. Gui Liberali & Alina Ferecatu, 2022. "Morphing for Consumer Dynamics: Bandits Meet Hidden Markov Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(4), pages 769-794, July.
    12. Antonello Maruotti & Jan Bulla & Tanya Mark, 2019. "Assessing the influence of marketing activities on customer behaviors: a dynamic clustering approach," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 77(1), pages 19-42, April.
    13. Eva Ascarza & Scott A. Neslin & Oded Netzer & Zachery Anderson & Peter S. Fader & Sunil Gupta & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Aurélie Lemmens & Barak Libai & David Neal & Foster Provost & Rom Schrift, 2018. "In Pursuit of Enhanced Customer Retention Management: Review, Key Issues, and Future Directions," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 5(1), pages 65-81, March.
    14. Reutterer, Thomas & Platzer, Michael & Schröder, Nadine, 2021. "Leveraging purchase regularity for predicting customer behavior the easy way," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 194-215.
    15. Valendin, Jan & Reutterer, Thomas & Platzer, Michael & Kalcher, Klaudius, 2022. "Customer base analysis with recurrent neural networks," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 988-1018.
    16. Park, Chang Hee & Park, Young-Hoon & Schweidel, David A., 2018. "The effects of mobile promotions on customer purchase dynamics," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 453-470.
    17. David A. Schweidel & Young-Hoon Park & Zainab Jamal, 2014. "A Multiactivity Latent Attrition Model for Customer Base Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 273-286, March.
    18. Christof Naumzik & Stefan Feuerriegel & Markus Weinmann, 2022. "I Will Survive: Predicting Business Failures from Customer Ratings," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(1), pages 188-207, January.
    19. Romero, Jaime & van der Lans, Ralf & Wierenga, Berend, 2013. "A Partially Hidden Markov Model of Customer Dynamics for CLV Measurement," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 185-208.
    20. Bas Donkers & Peter Verhoef & Martijn Jong, 2007. "Modeling CLV: A test of competing models in the insurance industry," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 163-190, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:3:p:471-486. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.