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Modeling and Analysis of Call Center Arrival Data: A Bayesian Approach

Author

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  • Refik Soyer

    (Department of Decision Sciences, School of Business, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C. 20052)

  • M. Murat Tarimcilar

    (Department of Decision Sciences, School of Business, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C. 20052)

Abstract

In this paper, we present a modulated Poisson process model to describe and analyze arrival data to a call center. The attractive feature of this model is that it takes into account both covariate and time effects on the call volume intensity, and in so doing, enables us to assess the effectiveness of different advertising strategies along with predicting the arrival patterns. A Bayesian analysis of the model is developed and an extension of the model is presented to describe potential heterogeneity in arrival patterns. The proposed model and the methodology are implemented using real call center arrival data.

Suggested Citation

  • Refik Soyer & M. Murat Tarimcilar, 2008. "Modeling and Analysis of Call Center Arrival Data: A Bayesian Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 266-278, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:54:y:2008:i:2:p:266-278
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1070.0776
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    Cited by:

    1. James W. Taylor, 2012. "Density Forecasting of Intraday Call Center Arrivals Using Models Based on Exponential Smoothing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 534-549, March.
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    4. Boris N. Oreshkin & Nazim Réegnard & Pierre L’Ecuyer, 2016. "Rate-Based Daily Arrival Process Models with Application to Call Centers," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 510-527, April.
    5. Ibrahim, Rouba & Ye, Han & L’Ecuyer, Pierre & Shen, Haipeng, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting call center arrivals: A literature survey and a case study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 865-874.
    6. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    7. Kaan Kuzu & Refik Soyer, 2018. "Bayesian modeling of abandonments in ticket queues," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(6-7), pages 499-521, September.
    8. René Bekker & Dennis Moeke & Bas Schmidt, 2019. "Keeping pace with the ebbs and flows in daily nursing home operations," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 350-363, June.
    9. Aktekin, Tevfik, 2014. "Call center service process analysis: Bayesian parametric and semi-parametric mixture modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(3), pages 709-719.
    10. Nader Ebrahimi & S.N.U.A. Kirmani & Ehsan S. Soofi, 2011. "Predictability of operational processes over finite horizon," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(6), pages 531-545, September.
    11. Tevfik Aktekin & Refik Soyer, 2012. "Bayesian analysis of queues with impatient customers: Applications to call centers," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(6), pages 441-456, September.
    12. Kinshuk Jerath & Anuj Kumar & Serguei Netessine, 2015. "An Information Stock Model of Customer Behavior in Multichannel Customer Support Services," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 368-383, July.
    13. Itai Gurvich & James Luedtke & Tolga Tezcan, 2010. "Staffing Call Centers with Uncertain Demand Forecasts: A Chance-Constrained Optimization Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1093-1115, July.
    14. Johnston, Reuben & Sarkani, Shahryar & Mazzuchi, Thomas & Holzer, Thomas & Eveleigh, Timothy, 2018. "Multivariate models using MCMCBayes for web-browser vulnerability discovery," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 52-61.
    15. Tevfik Aktekin & Refik Soyer, 2011. "Call center arrival modeling: A Bayesian state‐space approach," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(1), pages 28-42, February.
    16. Kiygi-Calli, Meltem & Weverbergh, Marcel & Franses, Philip Hans, 2021. "Forecasting time-varying arrivals: Impact of direct response advertising on call center performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 227-240.
    17. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Forecasting in telecommunications and ICT—A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1105-1126.
    18. Landon, Joshua & Ruggeri, Fabrizio & Soyer, Refik & Murat Tarimcilar, M., 2010. "Modeling latent sources in call center arrival data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 204(3), pages 597-603, August.
    19. Mustafa Akan & Bar{i}c{s} Ata & Martin A. Lariviere, 2011. "Asymmetric Information and Economies of Scale in Service Contracting," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 13(1), pages 58-72, September.

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