IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v49y2003i7p920-935.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inferring Infection Transmission Parameters That Influence Water Treatment Decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen E. Chick

    (Technology Management Area, INSEAD, Boulevard de Constance, 77305 Fontainebleau CEDEX, France)

  • Sada Soorapanth

    (Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, 1205 Beal Avenue, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

  • James S. Koopman

    (Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health-I, and Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, 109 Observatory Street, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

Abstract

One charge of the United States Environmental Protection Agency is to study the risk of infection for microbial agents that can be disseminated through drinking water systems, and to recommend water treatment policy to counter that risk. Recently proposed dynamical system models quantify indirect risks due to secondary transmission, in addition to primary infection risk from the water supply considered by standard assessments. Unfortunately, key parameters that influence water treatment policy are unknown, in part because of lack of data and effective inference methods. This paper develops inference methods for those parameters by using stochastic process models to better incorporate infection dynamics into the inference process. Our use of endemic data provides an alternative to waiting for, identifying, and measuring an outbreak. Data both from simulations and from New York City illustrate the approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen E. Chick & Sada Soorapanth & James S. Koopman, 2003. "Inferring Infection Transmission Parameters That Influence Water Treatment Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(7), pages 920-935, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:49:y:2003:i:7:p:920-935
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.49.7.920.16386
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.49.7.920.16386
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.49.7.920.16386?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James G. Kahn & Margaret L. Brandeau & John Dunn-Mortimer, 1998. "OR Modeling and AIDS Policy: From Theory to Practice," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 3-22, June.
    2. anonymous, 2000. "Annual report highlights the Atlanta Fed at work," Financial Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 13(Jul), pages 1-5.
    3. Edward H. Kaplan & Ron Brookmeyer, 1999. "Snapshot Estimators of Recent HIV Incidence Rates," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 29-37, February.
    4. Hoxie, N.J. & Davis, J.P. & Vergeront, J.M. & Nashold, R.D. & Blair, K.A., 1997. "Cryptosporidiosis-associated mortality following a massive waterborne outbreak in Milwaukee, Wisconsin," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(12), pages 2032-2035.
    5. Unknown, 2000. "Annual Report On Cotton Economics Research 1999/00," Cotton Economics Research Institute CER Series 31253, Texas Tech University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    6. Tom Britton & Philip D. O'Neill, 2002. "Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Epidemics in Populations with Random Social Structure," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 29(3), pages 375-390, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hamed Mamani & Stephen E. Chick & David Simchi-Levi, 2013. "A Game-Theoretic Model of International Influenza Vaccination Coordination," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1650-1670, July.
    2. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2009. "Bayesian Simulation and Decision Analysis: An Expository Survey," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 222-238, December.
    3. Choudhury, Nishat Alam & Ramkumar, M. & Schoenherr, Tobias & Singh, Shalabh, 2023. "The role of operations and supply chain management during epidemics and pandemics: Potential and future research opportunities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Phang, Sock-Yong & Wong, Wing-Keung & Chia, Ngee-Choon, 1996. "Singapore's experience with car quotas : Issues and policy processes," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 145-153, October.
    2. Barron, Andrew & Pereda, Asier & Stacey, Stephen, 2017. "Exploring the performance of government affairs subsidiaries: A study of organisation design and the social capital of European government affairs managers at Toyota Motor Europe and Hyundai Motor Com," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 184-196.
    3. Mykel R. Taylor & Gary W. Brester, 2005. "Noncash Income Transfers and Agricultural Land Values," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(4), pages 526-541.
    4. Waterkeyn, Juliet & Cairncross, Sandy, 2005. "Creating demand for sanitation and hygiene through Community Health Clubs: A cost-effective intervention in two districts in Zimbabwe," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 61(9), pages 1958-1970, November.
    5. Daniel Gaskin & Juergen Attard & Karen Caruana, 2017. "Household finance and consumption survey in Malta: the results from the second Wave," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2017, Central Bank of Malta.
    6. Koroneos, C. & Fokaidis, P. & Moussiopoulos, N., 2005. "Cyprus energy system and the use of renewable energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 1889-1901.
    7. Tefera, TL & Kirsten, JF & Perret, S, 2003. "Market Incentives, Farmers’ Response And A Policy Dilemma: A Case Study Of Chat Production In The Eastern Ethiopian Highlands," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 42(3).
    8. Lyons, Glenn, 2002. "Internet: investigating new technology's evolving role, nature and effects on transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 335-346, October.
    9. Wardle, D. A., 2003. "Global sale of green air travel supported using biodiesel," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-64, February.
    10. Philip J. Reny & Michael A. Williams, 2015. "The Deterrent Effect of Cable System Clustering on Overbuilders: An Economic Analysis of Behrend v. Comcast," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 519-527.
    11. M. Kabir Hassan, 2002. "An Empirical Investigation of Economic Cooperation among the OIC Member Countries," Working Papers 0212, Economic Research Forum, revised 18 Apr 2002.
    12. Richard B. Coffin & Christopher L. Osburn & Rebecca E. Plummer & Joseph P. Smith & Paula S. Rose & Kenneth S. Grabowski, 2015. "Deep Sediment-Sourced Methane Contribution to Shallow Sediment Organic Carbon: Atwater Valley, Texas-Louisiana Shelf, Gulf of Mexico," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-23, February.
    13. Cerdeiro, Diego A. & Dziubiński, Marcin & Goyal, Sanjeev, 2017. "Individual security, contagion, and network design," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 182-226.
    14. Hilbert, Martin R. & Katz, Jorge, 2003. "Building an information society: a Latin American and Caribbean perspective," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 2743 edited by Eclac.
    15. Stanislaw Kaszuba, 2010. "Prospects For The Future Growth Of The Newconnect Stock Market," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 117-126, December.
    16. Tom Britton, 2020. "Epidemic models on social networks—With inference," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 74(3), pages 222-241, August.
    17. Yu Hao & Yujia Li & Zhiyang Shen, 2023. "Does carbon emission trading contribute to reducing infectious diseases? Evidence from China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 74-100, March.
    18. Raji Balasubramanian & Stephen W. Lagakos, 2010. "Correction to article “Estimating HIV Incidence Based on Combined Prevalence Testing”," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 326-326, March.
    19. Steve E. Hrudey, 2011. "Safe Drinking Water Policy for Canada - Turning Hindsight into Foresight," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 323, February.
    20. Razvan G. Romanescu & Rob Deardon, 2017. "Fast Inference for Network Models of Infectious Disease Spread," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 44(3), pages 666-683, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:49:y:2003:i:7:p:920-935. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.