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Attribute Conflict and Preference Uncertainty: Effects on Judgment Time and Error

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory W. Fischer

    (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708)

  • Mary Frances Luce

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Jianmin Jia

    (Faculty of Business Administration, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, NT, Hong Kong)

Abstract

This research investigates preference uncertainty generated as a function of specific alternative characteristics during multiattribute evaluative judgments. We propose that preference uncertainty has at least two behavioral manifestations: longer judgment times and greater response error in expressed preferences. We investigate two hypotheses regarding stimulus-based causes of preference uncertainty. As predicted by our attribute conflict hypothesis, greater within-alternative conflict (discrepancy among the attributes of an evaluative alternative) led to longer judgment times and greater response error. As predicted by our attribute extremity hypothesis, greater attribute extremity (very high or low attribute values) resulted in shorter judgment times and less response error. We also found that judgment times and response errors were strongly positively correlated at the item level, consistent with our assumption that preference uncertainty generated by stimulus characteristics is manifested in judgment time and error. Finally, we found that the item-level preference uncertainty effects proposed here operate in parallel with strategy-level, effort-accuracy tradeoffs observable across participants. These findings are consistent with the RandMAU random multiattribute utility model developed in a companion article by Fischer et al. (2000).

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory W. Fischer & Mary Frances Luce & Jianmin Jia, 2000. "Attribute Conflict and Preference Uncertainty: Effects on Judgment Time and Error," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(1), pages 88-103, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:46:y:2000:i:1:p:88-103
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.46.1.88.15131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ralph L. Keeney, 2002. "Common Mistakes in Making Value Trade-Offs," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(6), pages 935-945, December.
    2. Gregory W. Fischer & Jianmin Jia & Mary Frances Luce, 2000. "Attribute Conflict and Preference Uncertainty: The RandMAU Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(5), pages 669-684, May.
    3. Ciampi, Francesco & Demi, Stefano & Magrini, Alessandro & Marzi, Giacomo & Papa, Armando, 2021. "Exploring the impact of big data analytics capabilities on business model innovation: The mediating role of entrepreneurial orientation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-13.
    4. Conlon, B.J. & Dellaert, B.G.C. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2001. "Complexity and Accuracy in Consumer Choice : The Double Benefits of Being the Consistently Better Brand," Discussion Paper 2001-54, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Erik Maier & Robert Wilken & Florian Dost, 2015. "The double benefits of consumer certainty: combining risk and range effects," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 473-488, December.
    6. Haiyan Xu & Keith Hipel & D. Kilgour & Ye Chen, 2010. "Combining strength and uncertainty for preferences in the graph model for conflict resolution with multiple decision makers," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 497-521, October.
    7. Manel Baucells & Rakesh K. Sarin, 2003. "Group Decisions with Multiple Criteria," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(8), pages 1105-1118, August.
    8. Conlon, B.J. & Dellaert, B.G.C. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2001. "Optimal Effort in Consumer Choice : Theory and Experimental Evidence for Binary Choice," Discussion Paper 2001-51, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Belvedere, Valeria & Goodwin, Paul, 2017. "The influence of product involvement and emotion on short-term product demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 652-661.
    10. Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Siegmann, Arjen, 2012. "Risk aversion under preference uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7.
    11. Dimitrios Tsekouras & Benedict G. C. Dellaert & Bas Donkers & Gerald Häubl, 2020. "Product set granularity and consumer response to recommendations," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 186-202, March.
    12. Elie Ofek & Muhamet Yildiz & Ernan Haruvy, 2007. "The Impact of Prior Decisions on Subsequent Valuations in a Costly Contemplation Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(8), pages 1217-1233, August.
    13. Jayson S. Jia & Uzma Khan & Ab Litt, 2015. "The Effect of Self-Control on the Construction of Risk Perceptions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(9), pages 2259-2280, September.
    14. Haiyan Xu & D. Marc Kilgour & Keith W. Hipel, 2011. "Matrix Representation of Conflict Resolution in Multiple-Decision-Maker Graph Models with Preference Uncertainty," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 755-779, November.
    15. Simsek, Zeki & Lubatkin, Michael H. & Veiga, John F. & Dino, Richard N., 2009. "The role of an entrepreneurially alert information system in promoting corporate entrepreneurship," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 62(8), pages 810-817, August.
    16. Philippe Delquié, 2003. "Optimal Conflict in Preference Assessment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(1), pages 102-115, January.
    17. A Jessop, 2011. "Using imprecise estimates for weights," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1048-1055, June.
    18. Tarján, Tamás & Veres, Zoltán, 2018. "Szekvenciális fogyasztói termékválasztás döntési kontinuuma [The decision-making continuum of sequential consumer-product choices]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 525-550.
    19. Richard M. Anderson & Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2002. "Using a Bayesian Approach to Quantify Scale Compatibility Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(12), pages 1555-1568, December.
    20. Deparis, Stéphane & Mousseau, Vincent & Öztürk, Meltem & Pallier, Christophe & Huron, Caroline, 2012. "When conflict induces the expression of incomplete preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 593-602.
    21. Palmeira, Mauricio M. & Krishnan, H. Shanker, 2008. "Criteria instability and the isolated option effect," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 153-167, July.
    22. Cheng, Yin-Hui & Chuang, Shih-Chieh & Pei-I Yu, Annie & Lai, Wan-Ting, 2019. "Change in your wallet, change your choice: The effect of the change-matching heuristic on choice," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 67-76.
    23. Scholten, Marc, 2002. "Conflict-mediated choice," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 683-718, July.

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