Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters
AbstractWhen two forecasters agree regarding the probability of an uncertain event, should a decision maker adopt that probability as his or her own? A decision maker who does so is said to act in accord with the unanimity principle. We examine a variety of Bayesian consensus models with respect to their conformance (or lack thereof) to the unanimity principle and a more general compromise principle. In an analysis of a large set of probability forecast data from meteorology, we show how well the various models, when fit to the data, reflect the empirical pattern of conformance to these principles.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.
Volume (Year): 36 (1990)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
combining probabilities; consensus; unanimity; weather forecasting;
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