IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v33y1987i8p947-954.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Model for Predicting Frequencies of Random Events

Author

Listed:
  • Donald Rosenfield

    (Arthur D. Little, Inc., Acorn Park, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140-2390 and Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139)

Abstract

This paper presents a new technique for forecasting frequencies of events over time for individuals. The technique bases future occurrences on an estimation procedure based on historical data. The estimation procedure incorporates two types of uncertainty: population variation and individual propensity to change. An example is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald Rosenfield, 1987. "A Model for Predicting Frequencies of Random Events," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(8), pages 947-954, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:8:p:947-954
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.33.8.947
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.33.8.947
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.33.8.947?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk; probability; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:8:p:947-954. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.