Should Scoring Rules be "Effective"?
AbstractA scoring rule is a reward function for eliciting or evaluating forecasts expressed as discrete or continuous probability distributions. A rule is strictly proper if it encourages the forecaster to state his true subjective probabilities, and effective if it is associated with a metric on the set of probability distributions. Recently, the property of effectiveness (which is stronger than strict properness) has been proposed as a desideratum for scoring rules for continuous forecasts, for reasons of "monotonicity" in keeping the forecaster close to his true probabilities, since in practice the forecast must be chosen from a low-dimensional set of "admissible" distributions. It is shown in this paper that what effectiveness implies, beyond strict properness, is not a monotonicity property but a transitivity property, which is difficult to justify behaviorally. The logarithmic scoring rule is shown to violate the transitivity property, and hence is not effective. The L 1 and L \infty metrics are shown to allow no effective scoring rules. Some potential difficulties in interpreting admissible forecasts are also discussed.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.
Volume (Year): 31 (1985)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
probability forecasting; evaluation of forecasts; proper scoring rules; effectiveness of scoring rules;
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