Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming
AbstractAn interactive goal programming approach for assessing scenario probabilities used in long-range forecasting and decision analysis is developed and illustrated using a small numerical example. The method only requires marginal event probability and ordinal or interval first-order conditional probability assessments of a limited number of events constituting the scenarios and guarantees the consistency of the assessments in terms of the laws of probability calculus.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.
Volume (Year): 30 (1984)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
probability assessment; interactive goal programming; scenario analysis; decision theory;
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- Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang, 2008. "Cross-impact balances," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3689-3700.
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