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Constructing a Complex Judgmental Model: An Index of Trauma Severity

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  • Dennis G. Fryback

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Ralph L. Keeney

    (Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Walnut Creek, California)

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    Abstract

    The modeling of many complex phenomena necessarily relies on numerous interrelated judgments. This paper illustrates an application of the concepts of multiattribute utility assessment, based on the professional judgments of one physician, to scale the trauma severity of injuries to individuals. Special attention is given to problems not usually present or reported in applications of the assessment techniques. These include nonmonotonic functions, strong dependencies among different measures, and the state dependence of trauma severity on age and existing diseases of the individual. The manner in which these complexities were addressed is indicated.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.29.8.869
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 29 (1983)
    Issue (Month): 8 (August)
    Pages: 869-883

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:29:y:1983:i:8:p:869-883

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    Related research

    Keywords: utility theory; subjective index; judgmental modeling;

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    Cited by:
    1. Zanakis, Stelios H. & Mandakovic, Tomislav & Gupta, Sushil K. & Sahay, Sundeep & Hong, Sungwan, 1995. "A review of program evaluation and fund allocation methods within the service and government sectors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-79, March.
    2. Bosworth, K & Gingiss, P.M & Potthoff, S & Roberts-Gray, C, 1999. "A Bayesian model to predict the success of the implementation of health and education innovations in school-centered programs," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11.

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