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Subjective Time Estimates in Critical Path Planning--A Preliminary Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • William R. King

    (Air Force Institute of Technology)

  • Talmadge A. Wilson

    (USAF Systems Command)

Abstract

A historical analysis of activity time estimates made by a number of contractors on a large-scale systems development project is conducted using two basic hypotheses. (1) Pre-activity time estimating accuracy improves as the beginning date of the activity approaches. (2) Time estimates made during the progress of an activity improve in relative accuracy as the completion date of the activity approaches. These hypotheses are tested and several models for adjusting time estimates on the basis of the estimator's past history are developed and tested. The results are not proposed to be definitive--but rather, preliminary ones which should serve to demonstrate the feasibility of the basic approach.

Suggested Citation

  • William R. King & Talmadge A. Wilson, 1967. "Subjective Time Estimates in Critical Path Planning--A Preliminary Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(5), pages 307-320, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:13:y:1967:i:5:p:307-320
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.13.5.307
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    Cited by:

    1. Bregman, Robert L., 2009. "A heuristic procedure for solving the dynamic probabilistic project expediting problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 125-137, January.
    2. Davies, Andrew & Manning, Stephan & Söderlund, Jonas, 2018. "When neighboring disciplines fail to learn from each other: The case of innovation and project management research," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 965-979.
    3. Robert D. Austin, 2001. "The Effects of Time Pressure on Quality in Software Development: An Agency Model," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 12(2), pages 195-207, June.

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