—Robust Prediction and Unrealistic Assumptions
AbstractIn the response to my commentary on his 2007 editorial entitled “It's the Findings, Stupid, Not the Assumptions,” Steven Shugan raises a number of thought-provoking ideas. In this rejoinder, I focus on three issues that Shugan and I hold the most divergent views. First, while Shugan uses the terms “realistic” and “realism” in several different meanings, I define the realism of an assumption as the extent to which it corresponds with the real world. Second, Shugan makes a strong claim that predictions can be objectively evaluated whereas assumptions cannot. I refute his claim by arguing that testing predictions and testing assumptions follow the same research process of checking whether the proposition concerned corresponds with reality. Third, Shugan maintains that given predictive accuracy, assumptions need not be realistic. I hold an opposite view for the obvious reason that the same prediction may be generated by completely different mechanisms, which in turn are based on different assumptions. Last but not least, the example of socialist economic planning shows that unrealistic assumptions can generate dangerous theories.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by INFORMS in its journal Marketing Science.
Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (09-10)
assumptions; prediction; realism; mechanismic explanation; theory testing;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.