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—Using Stock Prices to Predict Market Events: Evidence on Sales Takeoff and Long-Term Firm Survival

Author

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  • Dmitri G. Markovitch

    (HEC-Paris, 78350 Jouy-en-Josas, France)

  • Peter N. Golder

    (Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, New York 10012)

Abstract

We evaluate whether stock prices can predict the sales takeoff and the long-term survival of firms at takeoff. We find that abnormal returns are strongly positive in the year prior to takeoff, thus suggesting an important signal of the takeoff. Moreover, we find that negative abnormal returns in the year of takeoff and one year after takeoff increase the hazard of market exit by 9.5 times relative to firms without these negative abnormal returns. We discuss the implications of these findings for managers and researchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitri G. Markovitch & Peter N. Golder, 2008. "—Using Stock Prices to Predict Market Events: Evidence on Sales Takeoff and Long-Term Firm Survival," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 717-729, 07-08.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:27:y:2008:i:4:p:717-729
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1070.0325
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2021. "Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-19, June.
    4. Sundar Bharadwaj, 2015. "Developing new marketing strategy theory: addressing the limitations of a singular focus on firm financial performance," AMS Review, Springer;Academy of Marketing Science, vol. 5(3), pages 98-102, December.
    5. Chandrasekaran, Deepa & Arts, Joep W.C. & Tellis, Gerard J. & Frambach, Ruud T., 2013. "Pricing in the international takeoff of new products," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 249-264.
    6. Sundar Bharadwaj, 2015. "Developing new marketing strategy theory: addressing the limitations of a singular focus on firm financial performance," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 5(3), pages 98-102, December.
    7. Alina Sorescu & Nooshin L. Warren & Larisa Ertekin, 2017. "Event study methodology in the marketing literature: an overview," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 186-207, March.
    8. Alina Sorescu & Sorin M. Sorescu & Will J. Armstrong & Bart Devoldere, 2018. "Two Centuries of Innovations and Stock Market Bubbles," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(4), pages 507-529, August.
    9. M. Berk Talay & M. Billur Akdeniz & Ahmet H. Kirca, 2017. "When do the stock market returns to new product preannouncements predict product performance? Empirical evidence from the U.S. automotive industry," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 513-533, July.
    10. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2021. "A survival analysis in the assessment of the influence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the probability and intensity of decline in the value of stock indices," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 363-379, June.

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