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Evaluating the Impact of Advertising Media Plans: A Model of Consumer Purchase Dynamics Using Single-Source Data

Author

Listed:
  • James H. Pedrick

    (University of Southern California)

  • Fred S. Zufryden

    (University of Southern California)

Abstract

We propose a model to analyze the impact of advertising media plans and point-of-purchase marketing variables on a brand's market performance. Our model integrates brand choice, purchase incidence, and exposure behavior within a nonstationary stochastic framework. Moreover, it considers various aspects of consumer heterogeneity including individual differences in loyalty levels, purchase rates, and exposure probabilities for a population of consumers. The integrated model provides a relationship of advertising exposures from media plans, and other marketing variables, to measures of a brand's performance that include market share, penetration and depth of repeat patterns over time. In this paper, we focus on a multi-brand model formulation and stress its application to the analysis of advertising media plans. Based on single-source UPC scanner panel data for a frequently purchased product category, we provide an empirical test of the model. In this context, our analyses show that the model provides a good fit to the empirical data as well as accurate forecasts in hold-out predictive tests.

Suggested Citation

  • James H. Pedrick & Fred S. Zufryden, 1991. "Evaluating the Impact of Advertising Media Plans: A Model of Consumer Purchase Dynamics Using Single-Source Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 111-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:10:y:1991:i:2:p:111-130
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.10.2.111
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hruschka, Harald & Fettes, Werner & Probst, Markus, 2004. "An empirical comparison of the validity of a neural net based multinomial logit choice model to alternative model specifications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-180, November.
    2. Greg M. Allenby & Thomas S. Shively & Sha Yang & Mark J. Garratt, 2004. "A Choice Model for Packaged Goods: Dealing with Discrete Quantities and Quantity Discounts," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 95-108, June.
    3. Greg M. Allenby & Mark J. Garratt & Peter E. Rossi, 2010. "A Model for Trade-Up and Change in Considered Brands," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 40-56, 01-02.
    4. Biranchi Narayan Swar, 2018. "An Exploration Into the Factors Driving Working Professionals Buying Small Cars," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 175-186, February.
    5. Masataka Ban & Nobuhiko Terui & Makoto Abe, 2011. "A brand choice model for TV advertising management using single-source data," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 373-389, November.
    6. Chioveanu, Ioana, 2008. "Advertising, brand loyalty and pricing," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 68-80, September.
    7. Little, John D. C. & Anderson, Eric T., 1994. "A product choice model with marketing, filtering and purchase feedback," Working papers 3670-94., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    8. Song, Lianlian & Shi, Yang & Tso, Geoffrey Kwok Fai & Lo, Hing Po, 2021. "Forecasting week-to-week television ratings using reduced-form and structural dynamic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 302-321.
    9. Nobuhiko Terui & Masataka Ban & Greg M. Allenby, 2011. "The Effect of Media Advertising on Brand Consideration and Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 74-91, 01-02.
    10. J. Miguel Villas-Boas, 2004. "Consumer Learning, Brand Loyalty, and Competition," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 134-145, December.
    11. Randolph E. Bucklin & Sunil Gupta, 1999. "Commercial Use of UPC Scanner Data: Industry and Academic Perspectives," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 247-273.
    12. Nitin Mehta & Xinlei (Jack) Chen & Om Narasimhan, 2008. "Informing, Transforming, and Persuading: Disentangling the Multiple Effects of Advertising on Brand Choice Decisions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(3), pages 334-355, 05-06.
    13. Daniel Zantedeschi & Eleanor McDonnell Feit & Eric T. Bradlow, 2017. "Measuring Multichannel Advertising Response," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(8), pages 2706-2728, August.
    14. Abe, Makoto, 1995. "Price and advertising strategy of a national brand against its private-label clone : A signaling game approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 241-250, July.
    15. Acquisti, Alessandro & Spiekermann, Sarah, 2011. "Do Interruptions Pay off? Effects of Interruptive Ads on Consumers' Willingness to Pay," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 226-240.
    16. Jonathan Z. Zhang & Chun-Wei Chang, 2021. "Consumer dynamics: theories, methods, and emerging directions," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 166-196, January.
    17. Ioana Chioveanu, 2005. "Advertising, Brand Loyalty and Pricing," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 639.05, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).

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