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Evaluating the Impact of Advertising Media Plans: A Model of Consumer Purchase Dynamics Using Single-Source Data

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Author Info

  • James H. Pedrick

    (University of Southern California)

  • Fred S. Zufryden

    (University of Southern California)

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    Abstract

    We propose a model to analyze the impact of advertising media plans and point-of-purchase marketing variables on a brand's market performance. Our model integrates brand choice, purchase incidence, and exposure behavior within a nonstationary stochastic framework. Moreover, it considers various aspects of consumer heterogeneity including individual differences in loyalty levels, purchase rates, and exposure probabilities for a population of consumers. The integrated model provides a relationship of advertising exposures from media plans, and other marketing variables, to measures of a brand's performance that include market share, penetration and depth of repeat patterns over time. In this paper, we focus on a multi-brand model formulation and stress its application to the analysis of advertising media plans. Based on single-source UPC scanner panel data for a frequently purchased product category, we provide an empirical test of the model. In this context, our analyses show that the model provides a good fit to the empirical data as well as accurate forecasts in hold-out predictive tests.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.10.2.111
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Marketing Science.

    Volume (Year): 10 (1991)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 111-130

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:10:y:1991:i:2:p:111-130

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    Related research

    Keywords: advertising reach/frequency; logit choice model; stochastic purchase incidence; consumer heterogeneity;

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    Cited by:
    1. Hruschka, Harald & Fettes, Werner & Probst, Markus, 2004. "An empirical comparison of the validity of a neural net based multinomial logit choice model to alternative model specifications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-180, November.
    2. Abe, Makoto, 1995. "Price and advertising strategy of a national brand against its private-label clone : A signaling game approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 241-250, July.
    3. Chioveanu, Ioana, 2008. "Advertising, brand loyalty and pricing," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 68-80, September.
    4. Masataka Ban & Nobuhiko Terui & Makoto Abe, 2011. "A brand choice model for TV advertising management using single-source data," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 373-389, November.

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