Analysis of Changes in Japan's Unemployment Rate Using Gross Flow Data
AbstractUsing the flow data between the three states of employment, unemployment and not-in-the-labor-force, I undertook a detailed examination of factors contributing to changes in Japans unemployment rate. The results of the analysis provide the following explanations for Japans rising unemployment rate since 1991. First, the transition probability from employment to unemployment has risen, and at the same time the transition rate from unemployment to employment has declined significantly. Second, the transition probability from unemployment to not-in-the-labor-force has declined for both men and women, resulting in the accumulation of unemployment. Third, the results point to the possibility that the unemployment rate was also pushed up by the flow of workers from not-in-the-labor force to unemployment. Parallel to a decline in the transition probability from not-in-the-labor-force to employment, an increased inflow of men from not-in-the-labor-force to unemployment began in the mid-1990s. The same trend is observable for women beginning between the end of the 1990s and 2000. Next, I estimated the Phillips curve using the flow data as a source of additional information for forecasting price trends. The results indicate that the forecasting performance of the Phillips curve can in fact be improved by using flow data between employment and unemployment that are sensitive to trends in price levels and business conditions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its journal Monetary and Economic Studies.
Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2-1-1 Nihonbashi, Hongoku-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103
Web page: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Lin, Ching-Yang & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2012.
"Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 44-61.
- Ching-Yang Lin & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2010. "Gross Worker Flows and Unemployment Dynamics in Japan," Working Papers EMS_2010_07, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
- Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2009.
"Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Job Vacancies in Japan,"
EMS_2009_17, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
- Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2011. "Cyclical behavior of unemployment and job vacancies in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 214-225.
- Brian Silverstone & Will Bell, 2011. "Gross Labour Market Flows in New Zealand: Some Questions and Answers," Working Papers in Economics 11/15, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
- Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2003. "The Impact of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity on the Unemployment Rate: Quantitative Evidence from Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(4), pages 57-85, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.