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Financial Stability, Deflation, and Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Goodfriend, Marvin (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

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Abstract

The paper explores the relationship between financial stability, deflation, and monetary policy. A discussion of narrow liquidity, broad liquidity, market liquidity, and financial distress provides the foundation for the analysis. There are two preliminary conclusions. Equity prices are a misleading guide for interest rate policy. Monetary policy tactics protect market liquidity while maximizing the central bank's leverage over longer-term interest rates and aggregate demand. Monetary policy is a fundamental source of deflation and stagnation risk when price stability is fully credible. A central bank can be fooled by its own credibility for low inflation into being insufficiently preemptive in a business expansion. Then monetary policy can be constrained by the zero bound from reducing real interest rates enough in the subsequent contraction. The chain of events that leads to deflation and stagnation can be weakened or broken in a number of places. Monetary policy has the power to preempt deflation and the power to overcome the zero bound to restore prosperity after a deflationary shock. Fiscal policy is likely to be relatively ineffective at best and counterproductive at worst.

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File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/english/publication/mes/2001/me19-S1-7.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its journal Monetary and Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 19 (2001)
Issue (Month): S1 (February)
Pages: 143-67
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Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:19:y:2001:i:s1:p:143-67

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

Cited by:
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  1. Helmut Wagner, 2001. "Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 01/184, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andolfatto, David, 2003. "Monetary Implications of the Hayashi-Prescott Hypothesis for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(4), pages 1-20, December. [Downloadable!]
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  3. R. Kato & S. Nishiyama, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 8, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Thorsten V. Koeppl, 2009. "How Flexible Can Inflation Targeting Be? Suggestions for the Future of Canada's Targeting Regime," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 293, August. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jun Nagayasu, 2003. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During A Zero-Interest-Rate Period," IMF Working Papers 03/208, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Aaron MEHROTRA, 2004. "Could Japan Target the Price Level or Inflation - What Happens to Monetary Policy Effectiveness during Disinflation?," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/02, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  7. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Working Papers 10878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Christian Bordes & Laurent Clerc, 2007. "Price Stability and the ECB'S monetary policy strategy," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308557_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Mitsuhiro Fukao, 2005. "The Effects of 'Gesell' (Currency) Taxes in Promoting Japan's Economic Recovery," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-94, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bergman, U. Michael & Hansen, Jan, 2002. "Financial Instability and Monetary Policy: The Swedish Evidence," Working Paper Series 137, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  11. Helmut Wagner & Wolfram Berger, 2003. "Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 95, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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