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Inflation Measures for Monetary Policy: Measuring the Underlying Inflation Trend and Its Implication for Monetary Policy Implementation

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Author Info
Shiratsuka, Shigenori (Bank of Japan)

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Abstract

Few will argue against the view that price stability plays an important role in promoting medium- to long-term economic growth. However, a consensus has yet to be gained as to how we should define price stability in the context of monetary policy operations and a desirable rate of inflation. In addition, measured inflation rates are affected by various temporary shocks, and it is indeed quite a difficult issue to assess whether the underlying inflation trend is stable or not. This paper reexamines the definition of price stability from the practical viewpoint of monetary policy implementation, and discusses the usefulness of a limited influence estimator (LIE) as an indicator to trace the underlying inflation trend. The LIE is deemed useful in adjusting for the effects of various temporary shocks, and in gauging the underlying trend in price changes. In particular, the strength and direction of the under-lying inflation trend become more evident when year-to-year and seasonally adjusted month-to-month changes of the LIE are used in combination with other indexes such as changes in the overall CPI (or the overall CPI excluding fresh food).

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File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/japanese/all97/me15-2-1.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its journal Monetary and Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 15 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Pages: 1-26
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Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:15:y:1997:i:2:p:1-26

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

Cited by:
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  1. Mark A. Wynne, 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Paper Series 5, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Juan-Luis Vega & Mark A. Wynne, 2002. "A first assessment of some measures of core inflation for the euro area," Working Papers 02 05, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hogan, Seamus & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Pelinescu, Elena & Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu, 2008. "Alternative Measures of Core Inflation in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 134-148, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Luis J. Álvarez & María de los Llanos Matea, 1999. "Underlying Inflation Measures in Spain," Banco de España Working Papers 9911, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Bryan, Michael-F & Cecchetti, Stephen-G, 1999. "The Monthly Measurement of Core Inflation in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(1), pages 77-101, May. [Downloadable!]
  7. Scott Roger, 1998. "Core inflation: concepts, uses and measurement," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  8. Landau, Bettina, 2000. "Core inflation rates: A comparison of methods based on west German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  9. Juan Luis Vega-Croissier & Mark A. Wynne, 2001. "An evaluation of some measures of core inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 053, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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