Reassessing Cyclical Changes in Workers' Labor Market Status: Gross Flows and the Types of Workers Who Determine Them
AbstractThis analysis, using Current Population Survey data, yields statistically compelling evidence that cyclical variations in gross flows of U.S. workers—that is, variations by business cycle phase in the number of workers transitioning from one labor market state to another each month—were substantially smaller in 1986–2005 than in 1968–86. The authors identify six types of workers who would be expected to contribute to cyclical variations in these flows. Counter-intuitively, one such group consists of individuals whose decisions to enter or exit the labor force are independent of labor market conditions. Estimates suggest that these "noncyclical movers" are an empirically important component of gross flows into the labor force. The authors contend that the presence of noncyclical movers precludes accurate measurement of the contributions of workers whose entry and exit decisions are consciously influenced by labor market conditions.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School in its journal ILR Review.
Volume (Year): 61 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (January)
Postal: 381 Ives East, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-3901
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- Lin, Ching-Yang & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2012.
"Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 44-61.
- Ching-Yang Lin & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2010. "Gross Worker Flows and Unemployment Dynamics in Japan," Working Papers, Research Institute, International University of Japan EMS_2010_07, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
- Brian Silverstone & Will Bell, 2011. "Gross Labour Market Flows in New Zealand: Some Questions and Answers," Working Papers in Economics, University of Waikato, Department of Economics 11/15, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
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