Economic Modelling of the Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes in Australia The Diabetes Model

This paper outlines the development of the Diabetes Model which projects the number of Australians 25 years of age and over who are expected to have pre diabetes and type 2 diabetes over a 45 year simulation period. The model also simulates control of the disease in terms of glycaemic levels, cholesterol levels, weight and blood pressure control. The model produces a wide range of epidemiological and economic outputs to assess the current and projected impact of those with the disease. The number and cost of complications associated with type 2 diabetes, conditioning on the level of diabetes control, are also projected. The model also provides the capacity to quantify the effect of hypothetical public health initiatives in the management of type 2 diabetes and associated trends in risk factor prevalence and diabetes control over the simulation period. While the benefits of such programs often will not manifest until many years after implementation, the Diabetes Model simulation period enables long term benefits to be assessed beyond traditional government planning horizons. By comparing the results of the base case status quo projection to alternative simulations premised on interventions that either reduce the prevalence of diabetes risk factors or improve diabetes control among those known to have the disease, it is possible to identify the extent to which short run investments can reap long term benefits in both human and economic terms.