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Persistent Current Account Deficits: A Warning Signal?

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Author Info
Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria
Razin, Assaf

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Abstract

When should persistent current account deficits be of concern to policymakers? We address this question by developing a framework for analysing current account sustainability, that explicitly takes into account willingness to pay and willingness to lend in addition to intertemporal solvency. This framework helps understand a variety of country experiences with protracted current account imbalances. We identify a number of sustainability indicators related to the structure of the economy, the economic policy stance, and political economy factors, and use them to evaluate the experience of countries that suffered external crises and of others that avoided them. Copyright @ 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 1 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 161-81
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:1:y:1996:i:3:p:161-81

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  1. Marcel Fratzscher & Matthieu Bussiere, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 145, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Matthieu Bussière, 2007. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets - how early were the “early” warning signals?," Working Paper Series 713, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Julius Horvath, 1999. "The May 1997 Currency Crisis in the Czech Republic," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 277-298, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kunhong Kim & Viv B Hall & Robert A Buckle, 2001. "New Zealand's Current Account Deficit: Analysis based on the Intertemporal Optimisation Approach," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/02, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
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