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Improving the term structure of interest rates: two-factor models

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  • Lourdes Gómez-Valle

    (Dpto. Econom�a Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Valladolid, Spain)

  • Julia Mart�nez-Rodr�guez

    (Dpto. Econom�a Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Valladolid, Spain)

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    Abstract

    We consider a new approach for estimating the coefficients of the term structure equation in two-factor models. This approach is based on the fact that the risk-neutral drifts of the factors are directly estimated. Therefore, the market prices of risk and the physical drifts do not have to be either identified or estimated. In order to study the finite properties of this approach, we generate trajectories in a stochastic volatility model. We find that the risk-neutral drifts and the yield curves are more accurately estimated. Finally, we show the supremacy of this approach by means of US Treasury Bill data. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.392
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 275-287

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    Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:15:y:2010:i:3:p:275-287

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    Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/

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    1. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1979. "A continuous time approach to the pricing of bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 133-155, July.
    2. Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April.
    3. David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 2000. "Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 355-388, 02.
    4. Manuel Moreno, 1996. "A two-mean reverting-factor model of the term structure of interest rates," Economics Working Papers 193, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
    6. Richard, Scott F., 1978. "An arbitrage model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 33-57, March.
    7. Teresa Corzo Santamaría & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Convergence of Interest Rates: Effects on Bond Pricing," Faculty Working Papers 03/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    8. Clifford A. Ball & Walter N. Torous, 1999. "The Stochastic Volatility of Short-Term Interest Rates: Some International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2339-2359, December.
    9. Eva Ferreira, 2004. "Beyond Single-Factor Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(4), pages 565-591.
    10. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1995. "Regime Shifts in Short Term Riskless Interest Rates," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt5hs021jf, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    11. Pritsker, Matt, 1998. "Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 449-87.
    12. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    13. Michael J. Brennan and Eduardo S. Schwartz., 1979. "A Continuous-Time Approach to the Pricing of Bonds," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 85, University of California at Berkeley.
    14. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Nonparametric Pricing of Interest Rate Derivative Securities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 527-60, May.
    15. John Knight & Fuchun Li & Mingwei Yuan, 2006. "A Semiparametric Two-Factor Term Structure Model," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 204-237.
    16. Gómez-Valle, Lourdes & Marti­nez-Rodri­guez, Julia, 2008. "Modelling the term structure of interest rates: An efficient nonparametric approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 614-623, April.
    17. Eliseo Navarro & Juan M. Nave, 2001. "The structure of spot rates and immunization: Some further results," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 273-294.
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