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Testing for financial contagion between developed and emerging markets during the 1997 East Asian crisis

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Author Info

  • Philip Arestis

    (University of Cambridge, UK)

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

    (Brunel University, London, UK)

  • Andrea Cipollini

    (Queen Mary, University of London, UK)

  • Nicola Spagnolo

    (Brunel University, London, UK)

Abstract

In this paper we examine whether during the 1997 East Asian crisis there was any contagion from the four largest economies in the region (Thailand, Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia) to a number of developed countries (Japan, UK, Germany and France). Following Forbes and Rigobon, we test for contagion as a significant positive shift in the correlation between asset returns, taking into account heteroscedasticity and endogeneity bias. Furthermore, we improve on earlier empirical studies by carrying out a full sample test of the stability of the system that relies on more plausible (over) identifying restrictions. The estimation results provide some evidence of contagion, in particular from Japan (the main international lender in the region), which drastically cut its credit lines to the other Asian countries in 1997. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.284
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 359-367

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:10:y:2005:i:4:p:359-367

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  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2001. "Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10, pages 73-99 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989. "Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2005. "Testing for contagion: a conditional correlation analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 476-489, June.
  4. Edwards, Sebastian & Rigobon, Roberto, 2002. "Currency crises and contagion: an introduction," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 307-313, December.
  5. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
  6. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Nistor, Costel & Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2012. "Impact of the global crisis on the linkages between CAC 40 and indexes from CEE countries," MPRA Paper 42511, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Sep 2012.

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