Estimating Inflation Expectations with a Limited Number of Inflation-Indexed Bonds
AbstractWe develop a novel technique to estimate inflation expectations and inflation risk premia when only a limited number of inflation-indexed bonds are available. The method involves pricing coupon-bearing inflation-indexed bonds directly in terms of an affine term structure model, and avoids the usual requirement of estimating zero-coupon real yield curves. We estimate the model using a non-linear Kalman filter and apply it to Australia. The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in Australia are well anchored within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target range of 2 to 3 percent, and that inflation expectations are less volatile than inflation risk premia.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.
Volume (Year): 8 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Other versions of this item:
- Richard Finlay & Sebastian Wende, 2011. "Estimating Inflation Expectations with a Limited Number of Inflation-indexed Bonds," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2011-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joyce, Michael & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2009.
"Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: a joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves,"
Bank of England working papers
360, Bank of England.
- Joyce, Michael A.S. & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2010. "Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 281-294, February.
- Will Devlin & Deepika Patwardhan, 2012. "Measuring market inflation expectations," Economic Roundup, Treasury, Australian Government, issue 2, pages 5-17, August.
- David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2012. "The Forecasting Performance of Single Equation Models of Inflation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(280), pages 64-78, 03.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.