A Bivariate Model of Federal Reserve and ECB Main Policy Rates
AbstractThis paper studies when and by how much the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank change their target interest rates. I develop a new non-linear bivariate framework, which allows for elaborate dynamics and potential interdependence between the two countries, as opposed to linear feedback rules, such as a Taylor rule, and I use a novel real-time data set. Although the data sample is inherently small, through a Bayesian estimation approach, I find some evidence in favor of timing synchronization between central banks and against the hypothesis of follower behaviors. Results for the magnitude model support zero correlation in the size of the target rate changes. Institutional factors and inflation represent relevant variables for both timing and magnitude decisions, while output plays a secondary role.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.
Volume (Year): 7 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S63-S79, October.
- Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139.
- Pappa, Evi, 2004.
"Do the ECB and the Fed really need to cooperate? Optimal monetary policy in a two-country world,"
Open Access publications from London School of Economics and Political Science
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/, London School of Economics and Political Science.
- Pappa, Evi, 2004. "Do the ECB and the fed really need to cooperate? Optimal monetary policy in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 753-779, May.
- Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2002. "A simple approach to international monetary policy coordination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 177-196, June.
- Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003.
"The execution of monetary policy: a tale of two central banks,"
165, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "The execution of monetary policy: a tale of two central banks," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 435-467, October.
- Antonio Ribba, 2012.
"The federal funds rate and the conduction of the international orchestra,"
AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 2983-2990.
- Antonio Ribba, 2010. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Conduction of the International Orchestra," Department of Economics 0629, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Antonio Ribba, 2012. "The federal funds rate and the conduction of the international orchestra," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 086, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics.
- Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2012. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Discussion Papers 12-09, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido Kuersteiner, 2013.
"Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited,"
NBER Working Papers
19355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2013. "Semiparametric estimates of monetary policy effects: string theory revisited," Working Paper Series 2013-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.