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General Equilibrium Stock Index Futures Pricing Allowing for Event Risk

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  • Simon H. Yen

    (Department of Finance, National Chengchi University, Taiwan)

  • Jai Jen Wang

    (Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taiwan)

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    Abstract

    This study develops a new futures pricing model and derives its analytic solution. Comparative static and simulation results are also presented. Under this general equilibrium framework, we find that bounded degrees of state variables in the broad economy determine co-varying extents among various important market variables. However, increasing event risk, including the sizes of occurrence probability and corresponding impulse effects, makes their analysis intractable.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan in its journal International Journal of Business and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 2 (August)
    Pages: 103-119

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    Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:6:y:2007:i:2:p:103-119

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    Related research

    Keywords: general equilibrium model; event risk; intertemporal futures pricing;

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    References

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    1. Kon, Stanley J, 1984. " Models of Stock Returns-A Comparison," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 147-65, March.
    2. Johnson, Herb & Shanno, David, 1987. "Option Pricing when the Variance Is Changing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 143-151, June.
    3. Hemler, Michael L. & Longstaff, Francis A., 1991. "General Equilibrium Stock Index Futures Prices: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 287-308, September.
    4. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    5. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    6. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    7. Richard, Scott F. & Sundaresan, M., 1981. "A continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 347-371, December.
    8. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan, 2003. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 231-259, 02.
    9. Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-21, March.
    10. Merton, Robert C., 1975. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Working papers 787-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    11. Paul A. Samuelson, 1973. "Proof That Properly Discounted Present Values of Assets Vibrate Randomly," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(2), pages 369-374, Autumn.
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