Revenues, Profitability, and Returns: Clinical Analysis of the Market for Mobster Films
AbstractWe analyze empirically the revenues, profitability, and financial returns of mobster-related movies using data from worldwide theatrical exhibition, television syndication, and video rentals and sales. We quantify the revenues across each window of exhibition in relation to subsequent windows and to the production budget. A regression model is used to show the composition of worldwide revenues in relation to production value across the sequential windows of release. Project-level profitability and returns to investment are found to deviate substantially from normality. For the purpose of investment decision-making and risk management, the distribution of financial returns is fitted using the Levy-stable distribution to account for its high peak and heavy upper tail. Gangster-film profitability prospects are computed from the fitted Levy-stable distribution.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan in its journal International Journal of Business and Economics.
Volume (Year): 3 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
movie industry; gangster films; Levy-stable distribution;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
- Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature
- C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- De Vany, A. & Walls, W.D., 2000.
"Does Hollywood make too many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation,"
99-00-24, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 2002. "Does Hollywood Make Too Many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 425-452, July.
- W David Walls, 2004.
"Modeling movie success when "nobody knows anything": Conditional stable distribution analysis of film returns,"
Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings
409, Econometric Society.
- W. Walls, 2005. "Modeling Movie Success When ‘Nobody Knows Anything’: Conditional Stable-Distribution Analysis Of Film Returns," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 177-190, August.
- De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March.
- Arthur De Vany & W. Walls, 1999. "Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 285-318, November.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- Novriana Sumarti & Rafki Hidayat, 2013. "A Financial Risk Analysis: Does the 2008 Financial Crisis Give Impact on Weekends Returns of the U.S. Movie Box Office?," Papers 1306.0966, arXiv.org.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jui-Fen Lin).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.