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The EU or national reform program for Turkey: Does the political feasibility depend on the EU’s absorption capacity?

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Author Info

  • Hasan ERSEL

    (Sabancı Üniversitesi)

  • Fatih ÖZATAY

    (TOBB-ETU)

Abstract

Concerns of the EU countries on Turkey’s membership are summarized by the term ‘EU’s absorption capacity’. This implies that Turkey may end up as a member of the EU or may not. Even the reform process can abruptly come to an end due to reasons irrespective of the performance of Turkey. In a two-sector model, we show that despite this uncertainty, if before the start of the reform program a ‘no’ is perceived as less likely, the EU-reform will be supported ex-ante. However, a ‘no’ at the midst of the EU reform program can block the reform process ex-post, since both of the sectors suddenly find themselves in a position that they should have not accepted beforehand. Moreover, such a situation can render continuing with the alternative national reform program very hard.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bilgesel Yayincilik in its journal İktisat İşletme ve Finans.

Volume (Year): 24 (2009)
Issue (Month): 285 ()
Pages: 9-31

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Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:24:y:2009:i:285:p:9-31

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Web page: http://iif.com.tr

Related research

Keywords: Reform; European Union; Turkey’s accession;

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