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A Dynamic Oligopoly Structural Model For The Prescription Drug Market After Patent Expiration

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  • Andrew T. Ching

Abstract

This article incorporates consumer learning and heterogeneity into a dynamic oligopoly model for the prescription drug market. In the model, both firms and patients need to learn the generic qualities via patients' experiences, generic firms' entry decisions are endogenous, but their entry timings depend on a random approval process. I apply the model to examine the impact of shortening the expected generic approval time. Although this policy experiment brings generics to the market sooner, it increases a potential entrant's likelihood of entering a crowded market and hence could reduce the total number of generic entrants and consumer welfare.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2010.00615.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 51 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1175-1207

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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:51:y:2010:i:4:p:1175-1207

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Cited by:
  1. Ginger Zhe Jin & Marc Rysman, 2012. "Platform Pricing at Sports Card Conventions," NBER Working Papers 17959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jean-Pierre Dubé & K. Sudhir & Andrew Ching & Gregory Crawford & Michaela Draganska & Jeremy Fox & Wesley Hartmann & Günter Hitsch & V. Viard & Miguel Villas-Boas & Naufel Vilcassim, 2005. "Recent Advances in Structural Econometric Modeling: Dynamics, Product Positioning and Entry," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 209-224, December.
  3. Sebastian Kranz, 2012. "Discounted Stochastic Games with Voluntary Transfers," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1847, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Brekke, Kurt R. & Holmas, Tor Helge & Straume, Odd Rune, 2011. "Reference pricing, competition, and pharmaceutical expenditures: Theory and evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 624-638, August.
  5. Peter Arcidiacono & Paul B. Ellickson & Peter Landry & David B. Ridley, 2013. "Pharmaceutical Followers," NBER Working Papers 19522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Sebastian Kranz, 2013. "Relational Contracting, Repeated Negotiations, and Hold-Up," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1888, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Anderson, Simon P. & Ciliberto, Federico & Liaukonyte, Jura, 2013. "Information content of advertising: Empirical evidence from the OTC analgesic industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 355-367.
  8. Andrew T. Ching & Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 2013. "Learning Models: An Assessment of Progress, Challenges and New Developments," Economics Papers 2013-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  9. Ching, Andrew & Ishihara, Masakazu, 2007. "The Effects of Detailing on Prescribing Decisions under Two-Sided Learning," MPRA Paper 4935, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Alpert, Abby & Duggan, Mark & Hellerstein, Judith K., 2013. "Perverse reverse price competition: Average wholesale prices and Medicaid pharmaceutical spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 44-62.
  11. Kranz, Sebastian, 2013. "Relational Contracting, Repeated Negotiations, and Hold-Up," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80047, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  12. Andrew Ching & Susumu Imai & Masakazu Ishihara & Neelam Jain, 2012. "A practitioner’s guide to Bayesian estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming models," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 151-196, June.
  13. Marc Rysman & Ginger Zhe Jin, 2012. "Platform Pricing at Sports Card Conventions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2012-015, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  14. Andrew Ching & Masakazu Ishihara, 2010. "The effects of detailing on prescribing decisions under quality uncertainty," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 123-165, June.
  15. Roger Feldman & Félix Lobo, 2013. "Competition in prescription drug markets: the roles of trademarks, advertising, and generic names," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 667-675, August.
  16. Duflos, Gautier & Lichtenberg, Frank R., 2012. "Does competition stimulate drug utilization? The impact of changes in market structure on US drug prices, marketing and utilization," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 95-109.

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