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A parameter estimation method for machine tool reliability analysis using expert judgement


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  • Bhupesh Kumar Lad
  • Makarand S. Kulkarni
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    This paper aims at providing a parameter estimation method for the machine tool reliability analysis to overcome the problem of unavailability of a well-defined failure data collection mechanism. It uses the knowledge and experience of maintenance personnel to obtain the parameters of lifetime distribution of the repairable as well as non-repairable components/subassemblies. It is further developed for the cases where the knowledge available with the expert is with reference to the preventive repair/replacement policy used in the field. In case of imperfect repairs, the methodology also helps in estimating the value of restoration factor. The goodness of the proposed methodology at a given accuracy level in expert judgements are tested against the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. It is concluded that the expert judgement method provides a satisfactory alternative to statistical methods when no or very few historical time to failure data points are available.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Inderscience Enterprises Ltd in its journal Int. J. of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 155-169

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    Handle: RePEc:ids:injdan:v:2:y:2010:i:2:p:155-169

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    Related research

    Keywords: reliability analysis; data analysis; parameter estimation; expert judgement; preventive maintenance; restoration factor; machine tool reliability.;


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