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Forecasting US renewables in the national energy modelling system

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  • Roger Diedrich, Thomas W. Petersik

Abstract

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts US renewable energy supply and demand in the context of overall energy markets using the National Energy Modelling System (NEMS). Renewables compete with other supply and demand options within the residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electricity sectors of the US economy. NEMS forecasts renewable energy for grid-connected electricity production within the Electricity Market Module (EM), and characterises central station biomass, geothermal, conventional hydroelectric, municipal solid waste, solar thermal, solar photovoltaic, and wind-powered electricity generating technologies. EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1998, projecting US energy markets, forecasts marketed renewables to remain a minor part of US energy production and consumption through to 2020. The USA is expected to remain primarily a fossil energy producer and consumer throughout the period. An alternative case indicates that biomass, wind, and to some extent geothermal power would likely increase most rapidly if the US were to require greater use of renewables for power supply, though electricity prices would increase somewhat [1].

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Diedrich, Thomas W. Petersik, 2001. "Forecasting US renewables in the national energy modelling system," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(1/2), pages 141-158.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijgeni:v:15:y:2001:i:1/2:p:141-158
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    Cited by:

    1. Kancs, d'Artis & Wohlgemuth, Norbert, 2008. "Evaluation of renewable energy policies in an integrated economic-energy-environment model," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 128-139, January.
    2. Viccaro, Mauro & Rocchi, Benedetto & Cozzi, Mario & Egging, Rudolf G. & Perez-Valdes, Gerardo A. & Romano, Severino, 2017. "Promoting the Bioelectricity Sector at the Regional Level: an Impact Analysis of Energy Tax Policy," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 261158, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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