The psychology of economic forecasting
AbstractIs the imprecision of economic forecasts due to the judgements of biased decision makers? This study explores decision making among expert forecasters in Sweden using semistructured interviews. The results indicate that forecasters' decision processes are characterised by intuitive, as well as calculating reasoning, gradually adopting mental models and conflicting goals. This indicates that forecasters are better described as ecologically rational rather than biased decision makers. A consequence is that behavioural forecasting research would benefit from taking into account the specific decision-making environment in which forecasters operate.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Inderscience Enterprises Ltd in its journal Global Business and Economics Review.
Volume (Year): 9 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (January)
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Web page: http://inderscience.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=119796
psychology; economic forecasting; behavioural decision making; ecological rationality; biased judgements; Sweden;
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