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Comparative Analysis of Correspondence of Hypotheses on Statistical Properties of Stock Market Indicators with Real Observations

Author

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  • Dubnytskyi V.

    (Kharkiv Institute of Banking of the University of Banking of the National Bank of Ukraine)

  • Khodyrev A.

    (Kharkiv Institute of Banking of the University of Banking of the National Bank of Ukraine)

Abstract

The article provides results of comparative primary analysis of basis and chain indices of growth, which characterise dynamics of the stock market. It identifies auto-correlation functions of these indicators in order to determine the depth of the market memory. It calculates the Hurst exponent for indicators of the dynamics of the stock market. It computes the ratio of canonical correlation between the financial and real component of the financial market. Using the Foster-Stewart criterion it establishes absence of a trend in the dynamics of indicators, with the exception of the GOLD indicator, which has an exponential trend. Bachelier hypothesis with respect to availability of logarithmically normal distribution of relation of two consecutive values of dynamics indicators did not find experimental confirmation. This complicates a possibility of use of the Wiener process for forecasting indicators of the stock market for a long period of time.

Suggested Citation

  • Dubnytskyi V. & Khodyrev A., 2013. "Comparative Analysis of Correspondence of Hypotheses on Statistical Properties of Stock Market Indicators with Real Observations," Business Inform, RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE), Kharkiv National University of Economics, issue 7, pages 97-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:idp:bizinf:y:2013:i:7:p:97_104
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