This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

An Evaluation of the Exchange Rate Forecasting Performance of the New Keynesian Model

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Francis Vitek

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper evaluates the dynamic out-of-sample nominal exchange rate forecasting performance of the canonical New Keynesian model of a small open economy. A novel Bayesian procedure for jointly estimating the hyperparameters and trend components of a state space representation of an approximate linear panel unobserved components representation of this New Keynesian model, conditional on prior information concerning the values of hyperparameters and trend components, is developed and applied for this purpose. In agreement with the existing empirical literature, the paper finds that nominal exchange rate movements are difficult to forecast, with a random walk generally dominating the canonical New Keynesian model of a small open economy in terms of predictive accuracy at all horizons. Nevertheless, the paper finds empirical support for the common practice in the theoretical open economy macroeconomics literature of imposing deterministic equality restrictions on deep structural parameters across economies, both in-sample and out-of-sample.

Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Icfai Press in its journal The IUP Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): V (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 31-56
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:icf:icfjfe:v:05:y:2007:i:4:p:31-56

Contact details of provider:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Srinivasulu Bayineni).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Francis Vitek, 2005. "An Unobserved Components Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in a Small Open Economy," Macroeconomics 0512019, EconWPA, revised 04 Feb 2006. [Downloadable!]
  8. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc stands for Research Papers in Economics.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-21.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.