Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

On Balance of Payments Crisis in Serbia: if it ain’t broken, why fixing it might still be a good idea?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Marko Malovic

    ()
    (Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Contrary to mainstream opinions, with external deficit of more than 16% of GDP and foreign debt of 16 billion €, Serbia is at the verge of balance of payments crisis. It is most likely going to unravel as a sudden stop phenomenon, after which considerable real depreciation of national currency will be finally forced by both domestic and international portfolio adjustment. However, if Serbian monetary authorities manage to coordinate real exchange rate depreciation with urging reforms on a wider macroeconomic front, capital flow reversal does not necessarily have to bite into long-run economic growth and employment. In fact, it might prove to be a starting ingredient of bottoming out. One thing is for sure: Serbia won’t be able to maintain the present level of spending for much longer. Hopefully sooner rather than later, irrational or morally hazardous exuberance shall dissipate and leave room for inevitable rebalancing along the national saving-investment axis.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.ien.bg.ac.rs/index.php/en/2008/2008-12
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute of Economic Sciences in its journal Economic Analysis.

    Volume (Year): 41 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
    Pages: 24-47

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:ibg:eajour:v:41:y:2008:i:1-2:p:24-47

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 12 Zmaj Jovina St, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
    Phone: +381 11 2622 357, 2623-055
    Fax: +381 11 2181 471
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.ien.bg.ac.rs
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Balance of payments deficit; Serbia; dinar depreciation; sudden stop crisis; foreign debt; macroeconomic adjustment;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibg:eajour:v:41:y:2008:i:1-2:p:24-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zorica Bozic).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.