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The Application of a Grey Markov Model in Forecasting the Errors of EIA’s Projections in Gas Production and Energy Intensity

Author

Listed:
  • Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran)

  • Hamidreza Mostafaei

    (Department of statistics Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch & Department of Economics Energy, Institute for International Energy Studies ( Affiliated to Ministry of Petroleum))

  • Shaghayegh Kordnoori

    (Statistics expert of Research Institute for ICT, Tehran, Iran)

Abstract

Grey system theory looks for realistic patterns based on modeling with a few available data. In this paper, a Grey-Markov prediction model which is the combination of the GM(1,1) and Markov model was studied; Moreover, its applications in energy system were presented. The average errors of Energy Information Administration’s predictions for Natural Gas production and Energy intensity from 1985 to 2008 and 1985 to 2007 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. Comparing with GM(1,1) prediction model, we showed that the Grey- Markov prediction model improves the forecast accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh & Hamidreza Mostafaei & Shaghayegh Kordnoori, 2013. "The Application of a Grey Markov Model in Forecasting the Errors of EIA’s Projections in Gas Production and Energy Intensity," Hyperion Economic Journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Hyperion University of Bucharest, Romania, vol. 1(3), pages 9-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:hyp:journl:v:1:y:2013:i:3:p:9-17
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Grey Theory; Grey-Markov; EIA; gas production; energy intensity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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