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Forecasting of Exchange Rate Volatility between Naira and US Dollar Using GARCH Models

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  • Musa Y.
  • Tasi’u M.
  • Abubakar Bello

Abstract

Exchange rates are important financial problem that is receiving attention globally. This study investigated the volatility modeling of daily Dollar/Naira exchange rate using GARCH, GJR- GARCH, TGRACH and TS-GARCH models by using daily data over the period June 2000 to July 2011. The aim of the study is to determine volatility modeling of daily exchange rate between US (Dollar) and Nigeria (Naira). The results show that the GJR-GARCH and TGARCH models show the existence of statistically significant asymmetry effect. The forecasting ability is subsequently assessed using the symmetric lost functions which are the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Absolute Error (RMAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Theil inequality Coefficient. The results show that TGARCH model provide the most accurate forecasts. This model will captured all the necessary stylize facts (common features) of financial data, such as persistent, volatility clustering and asymmetric effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Musa Y. & Tasi’u M. & Abubakar Bello, 2014. "Forecasting of Exchange Rate Volatility between Naira and US Dollar Using GARCH Models," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(7), pages 369-381, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:hur:ijarbs:v:4:y:2014:i:7:p:369-381
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hatice Erkekoglu & Aweng Peter Majok Garang & Adire Simon Deng, 2020. "Modeling and Forecasting USD/UGX Volatility through GARCH Family Models: Evidence from Gaussian, T and GED Distributions," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 268-281.
    2. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Naira / USD Exchange Rate In Nigeria: a Box - Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 88622, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; GARCH; Asymmetric models; Exchange Rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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