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Evaluation and Specification of a Synergetic Business Cycle Model with German Data

Author

Listed:
  • Eyke H³llermeier

    (UniversitÚ Paul Sabatier, Toulouse)

  • Manfred Kraft

    (Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universitõt Paderborn, Paderborn)

  • Peter Weise

    (University of Kassel,Kassel, Germany)

Abstract

In order to determine how several causes of business activity induce business trends, we make use of a synergetic two-sector model which allows for tracing these causes back synthetically to the behavior of decision making investors. This model suggests that business trends result from irreversible investment decisions of investors in the consumer goods and investment goods industries which cause self-multiplying and hindering processes due to investment interdependencies. A maximum-likelihood procedure is derived for estimating the parameters of the model. Estimation results for data of the Federal Republic of Germany coincide ideally with conditions theoretically necessary for a cyclic model development.

Suggested Citation

  • Eyke H³llermeier & Manfred Kraft & Peter Weise, 1999. "Evaluation and Specification of a Synergetic Business Cycle Model with German Data," Homo Oeconomicus, Institute of SocioEconomics, vol. 16, pages 131-156.
    • Handle: RePEc:hom:homoec:v:16:y:1999:p:131-156
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