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Duration Analysis of Interest Rate Spells : Cross-National Study of Interest Rate Policy

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  • Guo, Yingwen
  • Zhou Z.F., Sherry
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    Abstract

    A duration analysis is adopted in this study to investigate the determinants of the "interest rate spells" across ten countries (or area) . Both parametric and nonparametric methods are employed for the analysis. It is found that the length of "interest rate spells" is affected by both the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth. In contrast, the influence of exchange and unemployment rates proved to be insignificant and the lagged interest rate is significant only for Denmark. The empirical results support the contention that central banks usually design their interest rate policies based on the Taylor Rule.

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    File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/19214/1/HJeco0520100010.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Hitotsubashi University in its journal Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 52 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (June)
    Pages: 1-11

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    Handle: RePEc:hit:hitjec:v:52:y:2011:i:1:p:1-11

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    Related research

    Keywords: Duration Analysis; Taylor Rule; Parametric Models; Nonparametric Models;

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    1. Alastair R. Hall & Atsushi Inoue, 2005. "The Large Sample Behaviour of the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator in Misspecified Models," Econometrics 0505002, EconWPA.
    2. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    3. Zhou, Yong & Wan, Alan T. K & Wang, Xiaojing, 2008. "Estimating Equations Inference With Missing Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(483), pages 1187-1199.
    4. Ada Ho & Alan Wan, 2002. "Testing for covariance stationarity of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks: an intervention analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 441-447.
    5. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    6. Zhou, Yong & Wan, Alan T.K. & Xie, Shangyu & Wang, Xiaojing, 2010. "Wavelet analysis of change-points in a non-parametric regression with heteroscedastic variance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 183-201, November.
    7. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
    8. Nejla Adanur Aklan & Mehmet Nargelecekenler, 2008. "Taylor Rule in Practice: Evidence from Turkey," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 156-166, May.
    9. Ruby Shih & David E. A. Giles, 2006. "Modelling the Duration of Interest Rate Spells Under Inflation Targeting in Canada," Econometrics Working Papers 0605, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
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