The Role of Forecasts in Social Security Policy
AbstractLong-term projections of pension expenditure are essential to evaluate the sustainability of social policies and potential reforms. The paper examines the main projections made in Italy and highlights the progress made and the problems remaining. It argues that forecasts played an important role in Italian pension policy, either postponing or enhancing reforms. The forecasts made in other European countries are also considered, as well as some significant revisions of the results of forecasting exercises. The paper emphasizes the importance of the attribution of responsibility and the frequency and transparency of projections. It argues that pension expenditure projections should be supplemented by estimates of the overall evolution of public finances and the economic situation of pensioners.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University in its journal Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia.
Volume (Year): 61 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
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- Marco Buti & Sylvester Eijffinger & Daniele Franco, 2003.
"Revisiting the Stability and Growth Pact: grand design or internal adjustment?,"
European Economy - Economic Papers
180, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Buti, Marco & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Franco, Daniele, 2003. "Revisiting the Stability and Growth Pact: Grand Design or Internal Adjustment?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Buti, M. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Franco, D., 2003. "Revisiting the stability and growth pact: Grand design or internal adjustment?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-152958, Tilburg University.
- Buti, M. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Franco, D., 2003. "Revisiting the Stability and Growth Pact: Grand Design or Internal Adjustment?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-176184, Tilburg University.
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