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Predicting the Psychological Response of the American People to Oil Depletion and Declining Energy Return on Investment (EROI)

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  • Jessica G. Lambert

    ()
    (Next Generation Energy Initiative, Inc., 32 First Street, Marcellus, NY 13108, USA)

  • Gail P. Lambert

    ()
    (Next Generation Energy Initiative, Inc., 32 First Street, Marcellus, NY 13108, USA)

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    Abstract

    Oil has played a crucial role in the United States’ continued but increasingly tenuous economic prosperity. The continued availability of cheap, high energy return on investment (EROI) oil, however, is increasingly in doubt. If cheap oil is increasingly constrained, how might that impact the American psychological sense of personal and national well-being? We employ general systems theory and certain key paradigms from psychology and sociology to predict the possible societal response to global peak oil and the declining EROI of whatever oil is produced. Based on these frameworks, the following three defense mechanisms seem likely to be employed by individuals and groups within society if and when confronted with stresses associated with declining oil availability. These are: denial of one’s passive helpless state, desire to establish a scapegoat, and arousal of affiliative needs and increased subgrouping. A group’s “survival” is a function of its unified sense of direction and the stability of necessary interdependencies and linkages. We suggest that the ability of the U.S. society, taken as a whole, to adapt to the stresses derived from the declining EROI of oil will increase during periods of moderate stress, and then decline after reaching its maximum ability to cope with stress. The integrity of interdependencies and linkages—power, communication, affect, and goals—must be preserved for continued social unity. Americans will need to acknowledge the reality of biophysical constraints if they are to adapt to the coming energy crisis.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by MDPI, Open Access Journal in its journal Sustainability.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 11 (November)
    Pages: 2129-2156

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    Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:3:y:2011:i:11:p:2129-2156:d:14703

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    Web page: http://www.mdpi.com/

    Related research

    Keywords: energy; EROI; Maximum Power Principle; stress; Psychological Defense Mechanisms;

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    1. Bentley, R. W., 2002. "Global oil & gas depletion: an overview," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 189-205, February.
    2. Ayres, Robert U. & Warr, Benjamin, 2005. "Accounting for growth: the role of physical work," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 181-209, June.
    3. Hecht, Jason, 2001. "Classical Labour-Displacing Technological Change: The Case of the US Insurance Industry," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 517-37, July.
    4. David W. Conrath, 1973. "Communications Environment and its Relationship to Organizational Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 20(4-Part-II), pages 586-603, December.
    5. Belk, Russell & Painter, John & Semenik, Richard, 1981. " Preferred Solutions to the Energy Crisis as a Function of Causal Attributions," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(3), pages 306-12, December.
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