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Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Changes Related to Invasive Species and Major Driving Forces in the State of Connecticut

Author

Listed:
  • Wenjie Wang

    (Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, 215 Glenbrook Rd, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

  • Chuanrong Zhang

    (Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, 215 Glenbrook Rd, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

  • Jenica M. Allen

    (Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, 56 College Road, Durham, NH 03824, USA)

  • Weidong Li

    (Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, 215 Glenbrook Rd, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

  • Mark A. Boyer

    (Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, 215 Glenbrook Rd, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

  • Kathleen Segerson

    (Department Economics, University of Connecticut, 365 Fairfield Way, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

  • John A. Silander

    (Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 75 N. Eagleville Road, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) patterns play an important role in the establishment and spread of invasive plants. Understanding LULC changes is useful for early detection and management of land-use change to reduce the spread of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to analyze and predict LULC changes in Connecticut. LULC maps for 1996, 2001 and 2006 were selected to analyze past land cover changes, and then potential LULC distribution in 2018 was predicted using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Markov Chain (MLP_MC) model. This study shows that the total area of forest has been decreasing, mainly caused by urban development and other human activity in Connecticut. The model predicts that the study area will lose 5535 ha of deciduous forest and gain 3502 ha of built-up area from 2006 to 2018. Moreover, forests near built-up areas and agriculture lands appear to be more vulnerable to conversion. Changes in LULC may result in subtle spatial shifts in invasion risk by an abundant invasive shrub, Japanese barberry ( Berberis thunbergii ). The gain of developed areas at the landscape scale was most closely linked to increased future invasion risk. Our findings suggest that the forest conversion needs to be controlled and well managed to help mitigate future invasion risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenjie Wang & Chuanrong Zhang & Jenica M. Allen & Weidong Li & Mark A. Boyer & Kathleen Segerson & John A. Silander, 2016. "Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Changes Related to Invasive Species and Major Driving Forces in the State of Connecticut," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:5:y:2016:i:3:p:25-:d:74945
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    7. Peter Chrastina & Pavel Hronček & Bohuslava Gregorová & Michaela Žoncová, 2020. "Land-Use Changes of Historical Rural Landscape—Heritage, Protection, and Sustainable Ecotourism: Case Study of Slovak Exclave Čív (Piliscsév) in Komárom-Esztergom County (Hungary)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-25, July.
    8. Jian Gong & Jingye Li & Jianxin Yang & Shicheng Li & Wenwu Tang, 2017. "Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Qinghai Lake Region of the Tibetan Plateau and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-21, July.
    9. Baolei Zhang & Qiaoyun Zhang & Chaoyang Feng & Qingyu Feng & Shumin Zhang, 2017. "Understanding Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics from 1976 to 2014 in Yellow River Delta," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, March.
    10. Motuma Shiferaw Regasa & Michael Nones, 2022. "Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Changes in the Ethiopian Fincha Sub-Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.

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