IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v11y2018i1p12-d134731.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ensemble Learning or Deep Learning? Application to Default Risk Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Shigeyuki Hamori

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan)

  • Minami Kawai

    (Department of Economics, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan)

  • Takahiro Kume

    (Department of Economics, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan)

  • Yuji Murakami

    (Department of Economics, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan)

  • Chikara Watanabe

    (Department of Economics, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan)

Abstract

Proper credit-risk management is essential for lending institutions, as substantial losses can be incurred when borrowers default. Consequently, statistical methods that can measure and analyze credit risk objectively are becoming increasingly important. This study analyzes default payment data and compares the prediction accuracy and classification ability of three ensemble-learning methods—specifically, bagging, random forest, and boosting—with those of various neural-network methods, each of which has a different activation function. The results obtained indicate that the classification ability of boosting is superior to other machine-learning methods including neural networks. It is also found that the performance of neural-network models depends on the choice of activation function, the number of middle layers, and the inclusion of dropout.

Suggested Citation

  • Shigeyuki Hamori & Minami Kawai & Takahiro Kume & Yuji Murakami & Chikara Watanabe, 2018. "Ensemble Learning or Deep Learning? Application to Default Risk Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:11:y:2018:i:1:p:12-:d:134731
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/11/1/12/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/11/1/12/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sihem Khemakhem & Younes Boujelbene, 2015. "Credit Risk Prediction: A Comparative Study between Discriminant Analysis and the Neural Network Approach," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 60-78, March.
    2. Angelini, Eliana & di Tollo, Giacomo & Roli, Andrea, 2008. "A neural network approach for credit risk evaluation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 733-755, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:agr:journl:v:4(621):y:2019:i:4(621):p:75-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Yuchen Zhang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "The Predictability of the Exchange Rate When Combining Machine Learning and Fundamental Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, March.
    3. Ryno du Plooy & Pierre J. Venter, 2021. "A Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and Bootstrap Aggregating Ensembles in a Modern Financial Derivative Pricing Framework," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Cheng-Chien Lai & Wei-Hsin Huang & Betty Chia-Chen Chang & Lee-Ching Hwang, 2021. "Development of Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Smoking Cessation Outcome," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-10, March.
    5. Martin Leo & Suneel Sharma & K. Maddulety, 2019. "Machine Learning in Banking Risk Management: A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Shigeyuki Hamori & Takahiro Kume, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence And Economic Growth," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 22(1), pages 256-278, December.
    7. Selçuk BAYRACI & Orkun SUSUZ, 2019. "A Deep Neural Network (DNN) based classification model in application to loan default prediction," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 75-84, Winter.
    8. Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Empirical Finance," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-3, January.
    9. Marc Andreas Schmitt, 2022. "Deep Learning in Business Analytics: A Clash of Expectations and Reality," Papers 2205.09337, arXiv.org.
    10. Marc Schmitt, 2022. "Deep Learning vs. Gradient Boosting: Benchmarking state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms for credit scoring," Papers 2205.10535, arXiv.org.
    11. Gunnarsson, Björn Rafn & vanden Broucke, Seppe & Baesens, Bart & Óskarsdóttir, María & Lemahieu, Wilfried, 2021. "Deep learning for credit scoring: Do or don’t?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(1), pages 292-305.
    12. Dimitrios Nikolaidis & Michalis Doumpos, 2022. "Credit Scoring with Drift Adaptation Using Local Regions of Competence," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, December.
    13. Jung-sik Hong & Hyeongyu Yeo & Nam-Wook Cho & Taeuk Ahn, 2018. "Identification of Core Suppliers Based on E-Invoice Data Using Supervised Machine Learning," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, October.
    14. Nikolaos Sariannidis & Stelios Papadakis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Christos Lemonakis & Tsioptsia Kyriaki-Argyro, 2020. "Default avoidance on credit card portfolios using accounting, demographical and exploratory factors: decision making based on machine learning (ML) techniques," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 715-739, November.
    15. Thackway, William & Ng, Matthew Kok Ming & Lee, Chyi Lin & Pettit, Christopher, 2021. "Building a predictive machine learning model of gentrification in Sydney," SocArXiv hkc96, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piasecki Krzysztof & Wójcicka-Wójtowicz Aleksandra, 2017. "Capacity of Neural Networks and Discriminant Analysis in Classifying Potential Debtors," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 129-143, December.
    2. Shigeyuki Hamori & Takahiro Kume, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence And Economic Growth," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 22(1), pages 256-278, December.
    3. Parisa Golbayani & Ionuc{t} Florescu & Rupak Chatterjee, 2020. "A comparative study of forecasting Corporate Credit Ratings using Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, and Decision Trees," Papers 2007.06617, arXiv.org.
    4. Aleksandra Wójcicka, 2017. "Neural Networks in Credit Risk Classification of Companies in the Construction Sector," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 2(2), pages 63-77, December.
    5. Golbayani, Parisa & Florescu, Ionuţ & Chatterjee, Rupak, 2020. "A comparative study of forecasting corporate credit ratings using neural networks, support vector machines, and decision trees," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Dan Wang & Zhi Chen & Ionut Florescu, 2021. "A Sparsity Algorithm with Applications to Corporate Credit Rating," Papers 2107.10306, arXiv.org.
    7. Francesco Ciampi & Alessandro Giannozzi & Giacomo Marzi & Edward I. Altman, 2021. "Rethinking SME default prediction: a systematic literature review and future perspectives," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(3), pages 2141-2188, March.
    8. Giacomo di Tollo & Joseph Andria & Gianni Filograsso, 2023. "The Predictive Power of Social Media Sentiment: Evidence from Cryptocurrencies and Stock Markets Using NLP and Stochastic ANNs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-18, August.
    9. Alexey Litvinenko, 2023. "A Comparative Analysis of Altman's Z-Score and T. Jury's Cash-Based Credit Risk Models with The Application to The Production Company and The Data for The Years 2016-2022," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 518-553, September.
    10. T. Nguyen D. & T. Do T. & B. Nguyen N. & Т. Нгуен Д. & Т. До Т. & Б. Нгуен Н., 2016. "Применение дискриминационной модели в управлении риском потребительских кредитов в коммерческом банке Вьетнама // Applying Discriminant Model to Manage Credit Risk for Consumer Loans in Vietnamese Com," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 4(4), pages 5-16.
    11. Peter Martey Addo & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-20, April.
    12. Alina Mihaela Dima & Simona Vasilache, 2016. "Credit Risk modeling for Companies Default Prediction using Neural Networks," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 127-143, September.
    13. Marco Locurcio & Francesco Tajani & Pierluigi Morano & Debora Anelli & Benedetto Manganelli, 2021. "Credit Risk Management of Property Investments through Multi-Criteria Indicators," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-23, June.
    14. Ting Sun & Miklos A. Vasarhelyi, 2018. "Predicting credit card delinquencies: An application of deep neural networks," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 174-189, October.
    15. Nikita Moiseev & Aleksander Sorokin & Natalya Zvezdina & Alexey Mikhaylov & Lyubov Khomyakova & Mir Sayed Shah Danish, 2021. "Credit Risk Theoretical Model on the Base of DCC-GARCH in Time-Varying Parameters Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-12, September.
    16. Iryna Yanenkova & Yuliia Nehoda & Svetlana Drobyazko & Andrii Zavhorodnii & Lyudmyla Berezovska, 2021. "Modeling of Bank Credit Risk Management Using the Cost Risk Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, May.
    17. Ali Asgary & Ali Sadeghi Naini, 2011. "Modelling The Adaptation Of Business Continuity Planning By Businesses Using Neural Networks," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2-3), pages 89-104, April.
    18. Brad S. Trinkle & Amelia A. Baldwin, 2016. "Research Opportunities for Neural Networks: The Case for Credit," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 240-254, July.
    19. J. Lara‐Rubio & A. Blanco‐Oliver & R. Pino‐Mejías, 2017. "Promoting Entrepreneurship at the Base of the Social Pyramid via Pricing Systems: A case Study," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 12-28, January.
    20. Liébana-Cabanillas, F. & Lara-Rubio, J., 2017. "Predictive and explanatory modeling regarding adoption of mobile payment systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 32-40.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risk; ensemble learning; deep learning; bagging; random forest; boosting; deep neural network;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G - Financial Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:11:y:2018:i:1:p:12-:d:134731. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.