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Modeling Future Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Supplies in Brazil

Author

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  • Alexander T. Dale

    (Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, 3700 O'Hara St., Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA)

  • André Frossard Pereira de Lucena

    (Programa de Planejamento Energético, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco C, Sala 211, Cidade Universitária, Ilha do Fundão, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil)

  • Joe Marriott

    (Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, 3700 O'Hara St., Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA)

  • Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba

    (Departamento de Engenharia Elétrica, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Rua Passo da Pátria, Bloco D, Sala 509, São Domingos, Niteroi 24210-240, Brazil)

  • Roberto Schaeffer

    (Programa de Planejamento Energético, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco C, Sala 211, Cidade Universitária, Ilha do Fundão, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil)

  • Melissa M. Bilec

    (Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, 3700 O'Hara St., Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA)

Abstract

Brazil’s status as a rapidly developing country is visible in its need for more energy, including electricity. While the current electricity generation mix is primarily hydropower based, high-quality dam sites are diminishing and diversification to other sources is likely. We combined life-cycle data for electricity production with scenarios developed using the IAEA’s MESSAGE model to examine environmental impacts of future electricity generation under a baseline case and four side cases, using a Monte-Carlo approach to incorporate uncertainty in power plant performance and LCA impacts. Our results show that, under the cost-optimal base case scenario, Brazil’s GHGs from electricity (excluding hydroelectric reservoir emissions) rise 370% by 2040 relative to 2010, with the carbon intensity per MWh rising 100%. This rise would make Brazil’s carbon emissions targets difficult to meet without demand-side programs. Our results show a future electricity mix dominated by environmental tradeoffs in the use of large-scale renewables, questioning the use tropical hydropower and highlighting the need for additional work to assess and include ecosystem and social impacts, where information is currently sparse.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander T. Dale & André Frossard Pereira de Lucena & Joe Marriott & Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba & Roberto Schaeffer & Melissa M. Bilec, 2013. "Modeling Future Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Supplies in Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(7), pages 1-27, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:6:y:2013:i:7:p:3182-3208:d:26841
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Gabriel Constantino & Marcos Freitas & Neilton Fidelis & Marcio Giannini Pereira, 2018. "Adoption of Photovoltaic Systems Along a Sure Path: A Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) Study Applied to the Analysis of GHG Emission Impacts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-28, October.
    4. M. A. Parvez Mahmud & Nazmul Huda & Shahjadi Hisan Farjana & Candace Lang, 2018. "Environmental Impacts of Solar-Photovoltaic and Solar-Thermal Systems with Life-Cycle Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, September.
    5. Sonja Simon & Tobias Naegler & Hans Christian Gils, 2018. "Transformation towards a Renewable Energy System in Brazil and Mexico—Technological and Structural Options for Latin America," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-26, April.
    6. Murillo Vetroni Barros & Cassiano Moro Piekarski & Antonio Carlos De Francisco, 2018. "Carbon Footprint of Electricity Generation in Brazil: An Analysis of the 2016–2026 Period," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, June.
    7. Batrancea Ioan & Rathnaswamy Malar Kumaran & Batrancea Larissa & Nichita Anca & Gaban Lucian & Fatacean Gheorghe & Tulai Horia & Bircea Ioan & Rus Mircea-Iosif, 2020. "A Panel Data Analysis on Sustainable Economic Growth in India, Brazil, and Romania," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-19, August.
    8. Gabriel Constantino de Lima & Andre Luiz Lopes Toledo & Leonidas Bourikas, 2021. "The Role of National Energy Policies and Life Cycle Emissions of PV Systems in Reducing Global Net Emissions of Greenhouse Gases," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    9. Portugal-Pereira, Joana & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Soria, Rafael & Lucena, André F.P. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2016. "Overlooked impacts of electricity expansion optimisation modelling: The life cycle side of the story," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1424-1435.
    10. Vega-Coloma, Mabel & Zaror, Claudio A., 2018. "Environmental impact profile of electricity generation in Chile: A baseline study over two decades," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 154-167.

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