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On the Stability of Energy-Only Markets with Government-Initiated Contracts-for-Differences

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  • Paul Simshauser

    (Department of Accounting, Finance & Economics, Griffith University, Brisbane 4111, Australia)

Abstract

Rising levels of variable renewable energy (VRE) in Australia’s National Electricity Market have been driven by a 20% renewable energy target by 2020. This certificated renewable portfolio standard has successfully driven new investment, allocated risk amongst buy- and sell-side market participants and met overall policy objectives. But a policy vacuum for achieving long-term CO 2 emission targets post-2020 has led to sub-national and, potentially, national governments initiating contract-for-differences (CfDs) to drive further investment activity in new plant—with virtually no coordination between the jurisdictions. In a gross pool energy-only market setting, replacing on-market transactions between retailers and generators with off-market transactions between governments and generators may have unintended side-effects vis-à-vis market stability. In this article, an energy-only gross pool is modeled with rising levels of off-market government-initiated CfDs, with a specific focus on spot and forward contract market outcomes. Model results show that as VRE plant enters, coal plant exit, and on-market firm hedge contracts historically supplied by coal plant are progressively replaced by off-market CfDs. In the event, while a tractable equilibrium can be maintained in the spot market, shortages of “primary issuance” hedge contracts emerge in the forward market. Any shortage of hedge contract capacity is likely to raise forward contract price premiums above efficient levels, force price-elastic customers into accepting unwanted spot market exposures and may unintentionally foreclose non-integrated (2nd tier) energy retailers, all of which harms consumer welfare. A wide-ranging program of government CfDs may therefore not be compatible with an energy-only market design.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Simshauser, 2019. "On the Stability of Energy-Only Markets with Government-Initiated Contracts-for-Differences," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-24, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:13:p:2566-:d:245448
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    Cited by:

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    4. Paul Simshauser, 2021. "Lessons from Australia's National Electricity Market 1998-2018: strengths and weaknesses of the reform experience," Chapters, in: Jean-Michel Glachant & Paul L. Joskow & Michael G. Pollitt (ed.), Handbook on Electricity Markets, chapter 9, pages 242-286, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Paul Simshauser & Joel Gilmore, 2020. "Is the NEM broken? Policy discontinuity and the 2017-2020 investment megacycle," Working Papers EPRG2014, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    6. Simshauser, Paul, 2021. "Renewable Energy Zones in Australia's National Electricity Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Simshauser, Paul, 2019. "Missing money, missing policy and Resource Adequacy in Australia's National Electricity Market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Wadim Strielkowski & Dalia Streimikiene & Alena Fomina & Elena Semenova, 2019. "Internet of Energy (IoE) and High-Renewables Electricity System Market Design," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    9. Gohdes, Nicholas & Simshauser, Paul & Wilson, Clevo, 2022. "Renewable entry costs, project finance and the role of revenue quality in Australia's National Electricity Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    10. Nelson, Tim & Dodd, Tracey, 2023. "Contracts-for-Difference: An assessment of social equity considerations in the renewable energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    11. Han Shu & Jacob Mays, 2022. "Beyond capacity: contractual form in electricity reliability obligations," Papers 2210.10858, arXiv.org.
    12. Gohdes, N. & Simshauser, P., 2022. "Renewable entry costs, project finance and the role of revenue quality in Australia’s National Electricity Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2206, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Steph Byrom & Geoff Bongers & Paul Dargusch & Andrew Garnett, 2023. "Integrated Policies to Reduce Australia’s Electricity Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions to Net Zero by 2050," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, February.
    14. Chris Johnathon & Ashish Prakash Agalgaonkar & Joel Kennedy & Chayne Planiden, 2021. "Analyzing Electricity Markets with Increasing Penetration of Large-Scale Renewable Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-15, November.
    15. Ricardo Gonçalves & Flávio Menezes, 2022. "Market‐wide impact of renewables on electricity prices in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(320), pages 1-21, March.
    16. Dumiter Florin Cornel & Turcaș Florin Marius & Boiţă Marius, 2023. "Oil Shock Impact Upon Energy Companies Investment Portfolios. Trends and Evolutions in the Energy Consumption Sector," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 33(1), pages 1-27, March.
    17. Simshauser, P., 2021. "Renewable Energy Zones in Australia’s National Electricity Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2119, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Webb, Jeremy & de Silva, H. Nadeeka & Wilson, Clevo, 2020. "The future of coal and renewable power generation in Australia: A review of market trends," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 363-378.
    19. Simshauser, P., 2020. "Merchant utilities and boundaries of the firm: vertical integration in energy-only markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2039, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Thomas Pownall & Iain Soutar & Catherine Mitchell, 2021. "Re-Designing GB’s Electricity Market Design: A Conceptual Framework Which Recognises the Value of Distributed Energy Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-26, February.
    21. Farhad Billimoria & Paul Simshauser, 2023. "Contract design for storage in hybrid electricity markets," Working Papers EPRG2304, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    22. Tim Nelson & Tahlia Nolan & Joel Gilmore, 2022. "What’s next for the Renewable Energy Target – resolving Australia’s integration of energy and climate change policy?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(1), pages 136-163, January.
    23. Nelson, Tim & Rai, Alan & Esplin, Ryan, 2021. "Overcoming the limitations of variable renewable production subsidies as a means of decarbonising electricity markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 544-556.
    24. Yasir Alsaedi & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Victor Wong, 2021. "Impact of the Nature of Energy Management and Responses to Policies Regarding Solar and Wind Pricing: A Qualitative Study of the Australian Electricity Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 191-205.
    25. Lynch, Muireann & Longoria, Genaro & Curtis, John, 2021. "Market design options for electricity markets with high variable renewable generation," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

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